Chinese Copper Exports Fall From Record as Local Demand Rebounds

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese copper exports dropped last month from an all-time high, as domestic buyers took advantage of the metal’s rapid retreat in price.

Exports of unwrought copper and products fell 40% from June to 140,940 tons, according to customs data on Sunday. Still, that’s nearly double the level of the previous year, with outbound shipments over the first seven months 43% higher than they were in 2023.

Overseas warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange have been stuffed with Chinese copper after a rally in international prices, which hit a record in May, opened a rare window for exports from the country that buys most of the world’s supply. 

A further drop in exports is likely as demand conditions improve in China. The arbitrage window for importing refined copper reopened this month as the Yangshan premium, which measures demand for overseas metal, rebounded. Stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have also eased from their June peak. 

But the market remains finely balanced. While China’s smelters pared output in July from the prior month, pressured by tighter global supplies of concentrate, production was still 6.7% higher than the previous year. Demand, meanwhile, is caught between rising purchases linked to the green transition, and the impact of a protracted downturn in the property market and shrinking factory activity.

“Cargoes booked during the export arbitrage window had all been shipped by the end of July, so August’s volume will drop further to the levels seen in normal months,” said Wang Yingying, an analyst with Galaxy Futures Co. “Chinese demand has picked up since last month as power grids increase orders.”  

LME copper rose 0.9% to $9,201 a ton as of 10:47 a.m. in Shanghai, extending last week’s rebound. The metal is still nearly $2,000 below May’s record. Other metals were higher, with zinc adding 0.9%.

On the Wire

The prospect of peak steel demand in China has profound implications for the global industry.

Imminent cuts to Chinese steel production should stabilize prices, particularly in long steel for construction, after 11 months of industry losses, Bloomberg Intelligence said.

China will step up efforts and strengthen coordination between government agencies to help spur private investments while its economy struggles to find a firm footing. 

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