(Bloomberg) -- Investors including JPMorgan Asset Management, M&G Investments and Aviva Investors say they seized on the retreat in riskier assets at the start of the month to bolster their holdings of emerging-market bonds.
While a small chorus of fund managers warn of a new retreat if fresh US recession fears emerge, others are betting on a period of steady easing by the Federal Reserve that burnishes the appeal of higher-yielding assets in developing nations. The more risk-tolerant recommend locking in high yields in markets like Ukraine and Ecuador.
“Emerging market bonds can deliver — reasonably easily — a double-digit return this year,” said Pierre-Yves Bareau, London-based global head of emerging market debt at the JPMorgan unit, who oversees $52 billion in EM debt. “Four-hundred basis points is an attractive spread for investors, but it’s not a crisis spread.”
The bounce-back has been swift across asset classes. If the current pace of gains for emerging-market dollar sovereign and corporate bonds is maintained for the full year, they would deliver a return of more than 8%, a Bloomberg index shows. That’s almost double the rate for equivalent US bonds.
As concern about weak US data and a rate hike in Japan drove the rout at the start of August, the extra yield investors demand to hold sovereign emerging debt rather than US government paper climbed for nine days straight, the longest run in about six years, according to a JPMorgan Chase index. About $400 million left global emerging-market bond funds in the week ending Aug. 7.
“I wouldn’t overinterpret the recent price action,” said Philip Fielding, co-head of emerging markets at Mackay Shields in London. “Emerging markets have coped with this higher interest rate environment.”
Liam Spillane, head of emerging-market debt at Aviva Investors Global Services, said the retreat “provides us with some opportunities in some of those high yielding, more idiosyncratic names,” such as Ecuador or Ukraine. Claudia Calich at M&G Investments used the spread widening to add bonds of Peru.
Others recommend sitting tight and letting the comparatively higher yields do their thing.
The average yield on sovereign dollar bonds from emerging markets was at 7.4% on Friday, about 1 percentage point above the five-year average, and almost double the rate in January 2021, a Bloomberg index shows.
Weakness Ahead?
Not everyone agrees the weakness is temporary. Should the Fed cuts rates in response to weaker economic data rather than slowing inflation, a new bout of risk aversion would be triggered, they say.
Vikram Rahul Aggarwal, lead fund manager at Jupiter Asset Management, says his holdings of hard-currency EM bonds are the lowest they’ve been in several years.
He cites the challenging geopolitical outlook, while a “pronounced deterioration in global economic data” would punish developing-nation foreign currency bonds.
“It is important to draw a distinction as to why the Fed is cutting rates,” said Jennifer Taylor, head of emerging market debt and senior portfolio manager in the global fixed income beta solutions group at State Street Global Advisors. “If it is because the US has entered a recession, then this would be bad for most risk assets — EM debt included.”
Wall Street is betting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will confirm that interest-rate cuts are coming at the central bank’s annual confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Bareau is getting “more engaged” in Asia. He says his base-case scenario is that the US avoids a recession as the economy slows and the Fed cuts, allowing investors to benefit from historically high EM yields.
Developing nations offer a way for investors who’ve become over-reliant on the US to diversify their portfolios and capture returns, he said.
“More investors will be looking at emerging markets.”
What to Watch
- Argentina’s June activity data may signal the economy exited recession in the second quarter, though still faces an uphill climb
- Mexico, Chile and Peru will report GDP data; Mexico will likely show activity and domestic demand are losing momentum, while Peru is likely to show strong growth in the second quarter
- Rate decisions are due in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea
- Turkey’s central bank will likely hold the one-week repo rate at 50% for the fifth consecutive time, while tightening through alternative tools
(Updates with Jackson Hole meeting near end.)
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