(Bloomberg) -- Two weeks after Iran vowed to retaliate for the killing of a senior Hamas leader, the biggest surprise has been that the attack still hasn’t happened.
As they’ve been saying for days, officials believe an attack could come at any time, and take one of many forms, all with the goal of sending a clear message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while avoiding a destructive regional war or scuttling negotiations that could bring an end to the war in the Gaza Strip.
As time ticks on, officials are prepared to counter an attack by positioning forces in the region and tracking the movements of Iran’s proxy forces in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
One western official, who asked not to be identified discussing private assessments, said an attack could target civilian infrastructure around the Israeli city of Haifa while avoiding civilian casualties that would trigger a devastating Israeli response. That person said the attack might come from Iranian proxies and not Iran itself.
Another option would be a more intensive attack than the one Iran launched in April, which was largely deflected by Israel and its allies. In that case, proxies including Hezbollah held off striking Israel at the same time that Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones, almost all of which were shot down.
A broader hit could include Israel’s desalination plants or the country’s nuclear reactor or military sites. Or Iran could launch a devastating cyber-attack that could cripple Israel without firing a single missile.
In the meantime, Israeli forces are on hair-trigger alert. The country activated a command bunker beneath the Jerusalem hills, and Netanyahu has said his country is ready for “any scenario.” At least one top lawmaker has called for pre-empting an Iranian attack.
“For the Iranians, it’s partly about threading the needle, so you don’t start World War III,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But it’s also about threading the needle so people come away thinking that you’re dangerous and competent and you’ve got more where that comes from, and not a third-rate regional power.”
Israel hasn’t taken responsibility for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31. But Iran has said the killing — Haniyeh was slain in a bomb blast at a Tehran guesthouse — was Israel’s handiwork, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed to “harshly punish” Israel.
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That’s prompted days of around-the-clock diplomacy by regional leaders along with US and European officials who fear a reprisal will plunge the Middle East into more violence and instability while negotiations to end Israel’s military operation in Gaza remain deadlocked.
Cease-fire talks resumed Thursday in Qatar. An Israeli delegation led by David Barnea, director of the Mossad spy service, arrived to meet with Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and CIA director William Burns, who is representing the US. Hamas representatives are expected to be briefed afterward.
Both Iran and the US have said a cease-fire in Gaza would have a ripple effect of calming wider tensions in the region. White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters the talks in Qatar are expected to continue into Friday.
In an earlier statement, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said “we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential cease-fire.”
There’s a “slim hope” that a military attack can be averted, said Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow on the Middle East and North Africa at the Stimson Center in Washington. “The Iranians have been pretty clear that if there is a durable cease-fire they will refrain from a military attack and essentially claim they are partly responsible for achieving” it, she said.
If and when an attack occurs, Iran may be able to use its broad network of proxies — Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq and Syria, and Hamas in Gaza — to coordinate a more complex and damaging assault on Israel from close range.
One option Israeli officials fear, according to a report on Israel’s Army Radio, could involve Iran ordering one of the Palestinian armed groups it sponsors in the West Bank to attack an Israeli target, potentially with a large number of civilian casualties.
A strike that kills many Israeli civilians, however, is likely to provoke a response by the US and Israel that Iran won’t be able to counter, according to Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council.
“Iran really has to worry if it goes too far,” Singh said. If Iran were more successful this time than it was in April, “that would then face a US or Israeli counter-attack that would quickly overwhelm it because Iran’s own defenses are not very good.”
Iran’s earlier reprisals for attacks it blamed on Israel and the US — including assassinations of nuclear scientists and a US strike that killed a top general in 2020 — have involved targeting US bases in Iraq or buildings in Iraq’s Kurdistan region that it claims are used by Israeli spies. US intelligence officials have also tracked possible Iranian plots to assassinate former US officials, including Donald Trump.
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Israel worries that its embassies or citizens abroad may come under Iranian attack. Iran has been accused by the US and some European countries of trying to kill dissidents overseas, and in 2021 Israel said it foiled a plot by the Islamic Republic to kill Israelis in Cyprus.
In addition to relatively weak air defenses and capabilities limited to drones and missiles, Iran’s heavily sanctioned economy means it’s not prepared to wage a major war, according to Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
US allies including the UK and France are likely to reprise their role from April in defending Israel in the event of an attack. France would definitely join efforts to protect Israel and help intercept Iranian missiles, among other efforts, if Israel were attacked, a person familiar with the allies’ deliberations said.
--With assistance from Galit Altstein, Samy Adghirni, Patrick Sykes, Golnar Motevalli and Josh Wingrove.
(Updates with cease-fire talks resuming in 11th paragraph, analyst in 15th)
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