(Bloomberg) -- Israel demonstrated its willingness to risk retaliation after the targeting within a few hours of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders abroad raised the prospect of a regional conflagration.
Israeli officials said the killing of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in Beirut late Tuesday was a response to a rocket attack last weekend from Lebanon that claimed the lives of a dozen children and teenagers playing football in the Golan Heights. Hezbollah confirmed his death on Wednesday.
The Israeli government didn’t officially claim responsibility for the subsequent slaying in a Tehran guest house of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas. But neither did it issue a denial. Privately, its officials did nothing to push back against the claim.
With the assassinations, Israel has opened the path to retribution. In Iran, where the new president’s term had only just begun, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said he had a “duty to seek vengeance” and that Israel should prepare for “severe punishment.” He issued an order for retaliation, the New York Times reported, citing three Iranian officials it didn’t identify.
“It’s part of Israel’s long-term counterterrorism paradigm that you go after the leaders of terror organizations,” said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank focused on political reform and critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “There’s a broad consensus among Israelis that all those who perpetrated the Oct. 7 massacre should cease to exist.”
Netanyahu said in a televised address Wednesday that “there are challenging times ahead.”
“Since the attack in Beirut, threats have been heard from all directions,” he said. “We are prepared for any scenario and will stand united and determined against any threat,” he said. “Israel will exact a very heavy price for aggression against us from any arena.” He made no mention of Israel’s attack in Tehran.
But the risks appear steep. Negotiations under way with Hamas to free hostages and impose a cease-fire on the nearly 10-month-old war in Gaza already seemed to be slowing, and may now stall if not break down.
Assassinating Negotiator
The prime minister of Qatar, a key mediator between the sides, said the death of Haniyeh — who lived in the Gulf state’s capital — would set back truce talks.
“How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” said Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. “Peace needs serious partners and a global stance against the disregard for human life.”
Regarding Hezbollah, the US-led diplomacy aimed at getting it to stop firing missiles at Israel and move its forces away from the country’s northern border could also be undermined.
In a sign of international alarm, China condemned the “assassination” and warned it would cause more turbulence in the Middle East. Beijing sent an official to President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration in Tehran on Tuesday — the same event that took Haniyeh to the city.
Within Israel, however, the view is different. On Wednesday, there was little sign of panic. The military didn’t increase states of alert for any region and Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport was operating normally. In the media, commentators almost universally said the killings would benefit Israel in the long term.
Israeli analysts noted that Haniyeh wasn’t targeted in Qatar, which would have almost certainly hurt the hostage talks and angered the US. Qatar is a key American ally in the Middle East.
“There will certainly be a pause in the negotiations,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser. “But after the initial shock wears off, there will be a cooler-headed calculation by Hamas.”
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ main leader who is hiding in Gaza, is under increasing pressure as Israel makes military gains in the Palestinian territory and more of the group’s fighters die, Amidror said.
“The entire negotiations strategy is based on his understanding that he has fewer and fewer cards to play,” he said.
Hamas, labeled a terrorist group by the US and the European Union, killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostage when its fighters swarmed into southern Israel on Oct. 7. Israel’s subsequent offensive on Gaza has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between fighters and civilians.
Less clear is how the Iranians, chief sponsors of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, will react to having a dignitary assassinated in the heart of their capital.
The airstrike will complicate — if not derail — the more Western-friendly diplomacy Iran has sought to project since Pezeshkian’s election win earlier this month. He’s vowed to improve ties with the US and its allies in a bid to get crippling economic sanctions eased.
On Wednesday, the Supreme Leader spoke of retaliation rather than reconciliation.
In April, after Israel killed two Iranian generals in the Syrian capital Damascus, Tehran fired some 300 missiles and drones at Israel, its first direct attack on the Jewish state. While most of the projectiles were shot down by a coalition including the US, UK, France and Jordan, and Iran effectively signaled its intentions in advance, it was clear that traditional red lines had been crossed.
Now, says Firas Modad, founder of Modad Geopolitics, a consultancy for investors, there is likely to be “a severe increase in risks to energy infrastructure” in the oil- and gas-rich Gulf as well as to shipping assets.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, asked about the killings in Lebanon and Iran, said he didn’t think war was inevitable.
“We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that we keep things from turning into a broader conflict,” he said. “If Israel is attacked, we certainly will help defend Israel.”
Israel has a long history of assassinations. In his 2018 book “Rise and Kill First,” Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman detailed more than 2,700 such operations involving poisoned toothpaste, armed drones, spare tires with remote-control bombs and exploding mobile phones. He said Israel killed half a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists.
Like many in Israel, Plesner, the democracy institute chief, is confident the two killings will work in the country’s favor.
“I’m not sure it will ruin the hostage talks,” he said. “Those negotiating know they are next in line.”
--With assistance from Philip J. Heijmans, Patrick Sykes, Philip Glamann, Dan Williams, Alisa Odenheimer and Raeedah Wahid.
(Updates with report Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered retaliation in fourth paragraph. Previous versions were corrected to remove a reference to Israel claiming both killings and to change Lloyd Austin’s location.)
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