(Bloomberg) -- Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is setting a personal record for the length of silence before a policy meeting, making rate decisions even harder to predict and adding to volatility in the financial markets.
The last time Ueda publicly spoke about monetary policy was 38 days ago, an unusual length of quietude for the governor who sometimes speaks multiple times a day. Normally Ueda is one of the most frequent public speakers among major central bank governors.
“I don’t think this is intentional,” said Ataru Okumura, a senior interest-rate strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc, referring to the absence of public comments by the governor. Still, “it’s a factor that will keep various market speculations and expectations alive until the end of the meeting.”
Ueda isn’t scheduled to speak publicly through the end of the policy gathering on July 31. The silence offers little help to BOJ watchers, at a moment when more than 90% of those surveyed see a rate hike in their risk scenario. Investors have also been buying the yen on bets that interest rates are finally about to tip in Japan’s favor.
July is one of the slowest months for BOJ communication, with the country’s main parliamentary session usually ending in June. The central bank governor is generally called in to answer a variety of questions when Japan’s diet is in session. Still, last July Ueda spoke to reporters during that year’s G-20 meetings. He has likely skipped it this time ahead of the policy gathering as the G-20 meetings are held in Brazil, which takes at least 24 hours to get to from Japan.
While Ueda keeps to himself, lawmakers have recently helped trigger moves in foreign exchange markets through comments on monetary policy. The yen gained Tuesday after hitting a fresh 38-year low earlier this month, as bets for a rate hike increased following remarks by a senior ruling party official urging the BOJ for clearer signals on normalization.
The BOJ has already said it will give details of its plan for cutting bond buying at this meeting, in its first step toward quantitative tightening after more than a decade of monetary easing. That has already raised market attention on this meeting.
The last time Ueda spoke publicly on June 18, he clearly indicated in parliament there’s a chance of a rate hike if data backs it up. Since then, Japan’s economic data have shown a mixed picture. Price expectations have stayed elevated while consumer spending hasn’t shown a clear pickup.
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