(Bloomberg) -- Uncertainty in Japan’s bond market is at the highest level this year ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting next week, where a reduction in its debt purchase program is widely expected.
The implied volatility of futures for 10-year government bonds rose to 4.489% as of Thursday, the highest since December. Futures for September delivery slipped 0.06 to 142.74 as of 2:44 p.m. in Osaka, set for a seven-day decline.
As the largest investor in Japan’s bond market, the BOJ’s policy decision could influence the direction of yields. Some 90% of BOJ watchers see the risk of it hiking rates on July 31, even if that is not their base-case outcome. Swaps pricing Thursday pointed to a 58% chance of a rate hike of 15 basis points by July 31, up from around 0.29% last week.
Yields on the underlying benchmark 10-year debt reached 1.1% in May, hitting the highest level since 2011. The yield was as low as 0.55% in January.
The bond market has become increasingly wary of additional rate hikes beyond this month’s meeting, lifting yields on medium-term notes. The yield on newly issued two-year government debt temporarily rose to 0.395%, the highest level since early June.
--With assistance from Masahiro Hidaka.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.