Here are five things you need to know this morning:
Rate cut odds now at 50-50 chance for June: The Bank of Canada opted not to change its benchmark policy rate yesterday, but consensus is growing that the era of standing on the sidelines is coming to an end. On the swaps market, the odds of a cut in June currently sit at just over 50 per cent, rising to a virtual lock by July. After taking heat for allowing inflation to run up quickly in the first place — and then exacerbating shelter inflation with ensuing rate hikes — the Bank of Canada is clearly proceeding cautiously before embarking on to the downslope for fear of having to reverse course later. But more and more voices are emerging suggesting that’s there’s already more than enough justification to start easing rates. Jeremy Kronick, the director of the Centre on Financial and Monetary Policy at the C.D. Howe institute, told BNN Bloomberg’s The Street this morning that he’s among those who thinks it’s time. “There’s a lot of evidence that the economy is slowing,” he said. While the headline annual inflation number has now been below three per cent for two months in a row, short-term three-month measures are even weaker. Given the knowledge that monetary policy works with a lag, “it was time to cut,” he said, “but we’ll see what happens in June.”
Unifor seeks to unionize 2 B.C. Amazon facilities: Canada’s largest private sector union has filed two applications to represent workers at a pair of Amazon facilities in British Columbia. Unifor says it has filed to represent workers at a fulfilment centre in New Westminster and one in Delta, the culmination of a unionization drive that formally launched last year. Under B.C. law, if more than 55 per cent of workers sign union cards, certification is automatically granted and collective bargaining can begin. A vote to unionize can also be implemented if at least 45 per cent of workers sign up. It’s a major development in the world of labour relations, where unions in Canada and the U.S. have targeted Amazon in recent years. The company for its part says it looks forward to working with employees to “continue making Amazon a great place to work.”
Home ownership getting out of reach, poll finds: There’s a gloomy sentiment about housing affordability in Canada, if the results of a new poll out today can be believed. An online survey of 1526 Canadian adults commissioned by CIBC and conducted by Maru Public Opinion found that among those who don’t already own their home, more than three quarters say entry into the housing market feels out of reach, even as more than half of them say they want to buy. There’s pessimism among those who already own, too, as more than half of variable rate mortgage holders say they are cutting back on other expenses in order to keep the roof over their head. And a majority of those on fixed-rate loans say they are planning to do the same in order to pay for the higher rate they’re expecting when they renew.
Biden admin wades back into court fight to close Enbridge pipeline: The Biden administration is wading into a long-running fight between energy giant Enbridge Inc. and local opposition to its Line 5 pipeline which takes Canadian oil from Western Canada to refineries in the U.S. Midwest. Last June, a U.S. district Court in Wisconsin ordered the company to relocate the pipeline away from the Bad River Reservation within three years or halt its operation and pay more than US$5 million for trespassing. But in a brief filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals this week, the U.S. Department of Justice said the original ruling did not consider “trade and diplomatic relationship with and treaty obligations to Canada,” in its decision. Enbridge is also facing opposition to the line in Michigan where the state government wants it to be shut down because of the threat of a spill where it crosses the Great Lakes, but Enbridge says a total shutdown of the line is “not in the public interest as it would negatively impact businesses, communities and millions of individuals who depend on Line 5 for energy in both the U.S. and Canada.”
Oil poised for gains as geopolitical tensions ratchet up: Oil prices rose on Wednesday and are poised to do the same on Thursday following a threat by Iran to hit Israel in retaliation for an attack on a diplomatic compound in Syria last week. After an 18 per cent rise this year, West Texas Intermediate is flirting with US$86 a barrel this morning and analysts and traders are upping their forecasts for the price of crude, Bloomberg reports. “Geopolitical risks continue to linger as the U.S. warned Israel about an imminent Iran attack,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics, to Bloomberg. “The question remains if the market loses patience with it in days if nothing materializes.”