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LVMH’s Subdued Sales Temper Hopes for a Rapid Luxury Rebound

A Louis Vuitton store in the Sanlitun area of Beijing, China, on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. (Na Bian/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- LVMH’s sales of fashion and leather goods declined in the fourth quarter, casting doubt on the prospects for a quick recovery in luxury demand.

Sales at the key unit, which includes the Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior brands, slipped 1% as wealthy holiday shoppers remained cautious. Overall revenue at LVMH increased only 1%.

Both figures were slightly better than estimates but disappointed investors after an upbeat report from rival Richemont earlier this month. The Swiss company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales on purchases of its Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels jewelry, sparking hopes the luxury market was emerging from the doldrums. Burberry Group Plc provided another positive surprise last week, adding to the optimism.

LVMH shares fell as much as 6.7% in Paris Wednesday, after rallying more than 30% from their low of last November. The results pulled down rival luxury firms including Gucci owner Kering SA, which fell the most since July, and Moncler SpA.

LVMH’s update raised concerns that the industry’s recovery from last year’s slump — caused in part by Chinese shoppers reining in high-end purchases — may be slow and uneven.

There was “an improvement, but not the magnitude hoped,” JPMorgan analyst Chiara Battistini said in a note. 

Sales in the region that includes China dropped 10% in the fourth quarter, the only geographic area that didn’t show growth. Sales rose 3% in the US — below estimates — and 4% in Europe.

‘Gradual Recovery’

In China, “what I expect is to see a gradual recovery,” Chief Executive Officer Bernard Arnault said during a presentation Tuesday. “The environment was severely impacted by Covid, then there was a strong recovery, followed by another crisis — the real estate crisis — so it’s going to take some time.” 

Overall, the situation globally was better in the period, but the improving trend still needs to be confirmed, Chief Financial Officer Jean-Jacques Guiony said. 

Profit at LVMH slumped, even as the company lowered its overall marketing costs by 5% last year. Recurring operating income dropped 14% in 2024 to €19.6 billion ($20.4 billion), missing estimates. One-time costs had an impact, including charges related to the Paris Olympic Games, Guiony said.

Still, there were signs of resilience. Sales at the watches and jewelry unit, which includes Tiffany and Bulgari, unexpectedly rose in the fourth quarter, more evidence that wealthy shoppers are favoring so-called hard luxury items, rather than the soft luxury of handbags and evening wear. Tiffany sales rose 9%.

Arnault struck an upbeat tone at the presentation. He said 2025 has started relatively well, with Louis Vuitton posting double-digit growth so far this year.

Citigroup analyst Thomas Chauvet said that strong performance in early 2025 “should be taken carefully,” since Louis Vuitton recently launched a high-profile campaign with Japanese artist Takashi Murakami featuring movie star Zendaya.

Arnault also said he’s confident that struggling brand Dior will make progress this year, and predicted a “booming” US market, a country he visited last week for President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

The wine and spirits business, which has been in a slump following a pandemic-era surge, could recover in the next two years, he said. A sale of the Moet Hennessy drinks unit is not on the agenda, Arnault added. The division gets a new management team starting next week, led by Guiony and Arnault’s son Alexandre.

(Updates with analyst comment in sixth paragraph, US, Europe sales performance in seventh)

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