(Bloomberg) -- Justin Trudeau has been Canada’s prime minister since November 2015, longer than any other leader of a major western democracy. But a series of political fumbles — including the scathing resignation of his finance minister, one of his closest allies — caught up to him, and members of his Liberal Party have now forced his resignation.
A general election is due by October; public opinion surveys suggest the Liberals have a mountain to climb to overcome discontent on issues such as the cost of living and immigration. That has given an opening to the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, to retake power.
Why is the Conservative Party’s popularity growing?
Polls show that Canadians want change and they’re dissatisfied with the economy under Trudeau. Canada’s gross domestic product has contracted for six straight quarters on a per-capita basis. That’s a cumulative decline of 3.5% from a peak in 2022, something never seen outside of a recession. The only thing preventing an outright recession is rapid population growth, due in large part to immigration.
Unemployment is growing. Wages can’t keep up with grocery prices. The dream of homeownership appears to be out of reach for many young Canadians — a key voting bloc that helped elect Trudeau.
The Conservatives have pounced on these grievances. They blame Trudeau’s policy of more openness to immigration, his taxes on carbon emissions and higher government spending for making life more expensive, and vow to reverse course. Poilievre was quick to focus on inflation and housing even before he became the party’s leader more than two years ago, and he has been consistent about it.
How is the Conservative Party changing?
After Trudeau ousted former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the 2015 election, the party went through a series of leaders. Poilievre’s predecessor, Erin O’Toole, attempted to broaden support by shifting to a more centrist stance on issues like climate change. But after failing to gain seats in the 2021 election, O’Toole was removed as leader in early 2022 and Poilievre won a leadership contest.
Under his direction, the party has embraced a more populist approach. He has promised fewer regulations, smaller government, tax reform, less public spending and more oil and gas development — a marked shift from Trudeau, whose government has expanded the state and brought in tougher environmental regulations for industry.
In terms of style, Poilievre is known as an attack dog. He’s combative with the media and sometimes engages in taunting on social media. He has been known, on occasion, to echo certain right-wing conspiracy theories. When running for the party leadership, he whipped up crowds of supporters by telling them he would ban Conservative cabinet ministers from attending the World Economic Forum.
But Poilievre has largely stayed away from many of the more controversial battlegrounds of the culture wars. In Canada, abortion is legal, marriage equality has been enshrined in national law for nearly two decades and cannabis is widely available. Poilievre has given no indication that a Conservative government led by him would try to change those things. On abortion, he has previously said he “would not introduce or pass legislation restricting abortion.”
Where have the Liberals stumbled?
During his nine years in power, Trudeau has weathered several controversies, including the accusation that he tried to persuade his attorney general, an Indigenous woman, to intervene to help a major engineering firm escape a criminal investigation, then moved her out of the role when she refused. The scandal broke shortly before the revelation that he’d worn blackface makeup on several occasions in his teens and twenties, further tarnishing his progressive image.
In July 2023, with his popularity falling, Trudeau shuffled his cabinet, dropping some longtime ministers, but the move failed to boost his fortunes. His Liberal Party lost three special elections in 2024, including two in Toronto and Montreal that were long considered safe seats.
But it was the abrupt resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland in December that fueled momentum from within the Liberal Party to pressure the prime minister to step down. In her resignation letter, Freeland criticized Trudeau for pursuing “costly political gimmicks” instead of preparing for a potential tariff war with the US. The Liberals are viewed as being in catch-up mode with policies to address public angst about housing affordability, immigration and the security of the border.
Why is immigration so pivotal?
Immigration touches on voters’ key issues: the economy, housing, jobs, public services and infrastructure. Canada’s support for welcoming new arrivals was deeply rooted in a conviction that there’s a benefit from immigration. But more Canadians have begun to question that idea since immigration rules were loosened after the Covid-19 pandemic. The government eased restrictions on temporary foreign workers, and some provincial governments allowed an influx of international students. The result was a surge in population growth to more than 3% a year.
For the first time since 1998, a majority of Canadians now say there’s too much immigration. Record inflows have exacerbated housing scarcity, inflated rents, contributed to a rising unemployment rate, and stretched public services. Even Trudeau, whose policy for years has sought to boost the level of immigration, now wants to lower it.
The government’s stricter migration rules are starting to slow population growth. Poilievre has said he would tie immigration levels to housing, jobs and health care capacity. He’s also promised to remove the federal sales tax on the purchase of new homes under C$1 million and get rid of a Trudeau program that transferred billions of dollars to cities to incentivize multi-unit construction.
Which other issues have Conservatives capitalized on?
US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose broad tariffs on Canadian products is the country’s biggest economic risk.
Poilievre has tried to position himself as stronger on the border than Trudeau, attempting to address concerns raised by Trump about drugs and migrants. But he drew some criticism in Canada when he appeared too eager to amplify some of Trump’s talking points.
Similar to Trudeau, the Conservative leader has said he would respond if the Trump administration brings in tariffs. In a podcast interview with Jordan Peterson, a right-wing Canadian influencer, Poilievre suggested he would propose a grand bargain to Trump: Canada would boost energy production, helping the US bring down costs, in return for more certainty around trade. “I think that we can get a great deal that will make both countries safer, richer, and stronger,” he said.
A poll conducted by Nanos Research for Bloomberg News found that Canadians view Trudeau and Poilievre as equally suited to manage the country’s relationship with Trump.
Which Conservative politicians are most ascendant?
If the Conservatives form the next government, some of the party’s current House members will be asked to fill key portfolios. Poilievre has named Melissa Lantsman, who holds a key Toronto-area seat, and Tim Uppal, a lawmaker representing Edmonton, as deputy leaders of the party. Michael Chong, a veteran Conservative widely respected in the caucus, would probably be given a major role.
Other names frequently mentioned include Andrew Scheer, who led the party in the 2019 election; Adam Chambers, who is helping craft the election platform; and Jamil Jivani, a former radio host who is friends with incoming US Vice President JD Vance.
Polls suggest the Conservatives are poised to win a large majority of the 343 House of Commons seats in the next election. If that happens, some high-profile cabinet posts are likely to be given to some of the new faces in parliament for the first time.
--With assistance from Brian Platt, Melissa Shin and Laura Dhillon Kane.
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