(Bloomberg) -- Disappointing trial results for Novo Nordisk A/S’s experimental obesity shot capped a volatile year for investors in drug developers vying for a piece of pharma’s hottest market.
Novo shares are rebounding on Monday, but the Danish company has still lost about $70 billion in market capitalization this year. Rival Eli Lilly & Co., meanwhile, has added more than $170 billion to its market value amid huge demand for its Zepbound drug, while shares in smaller firms like Zealand Pharma A/S and Viking Therapeutics Inc. have soared as they made headway with their own obesity treatments.
More clarity around potential winners and losers may emerge next year, and the stakes are high — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has estimated that obesity drugs could be a $130 billion market by 2030.
“Excitement will remain high,” said Chris Eccles, a portfolio manager at AXA Investment Managers, in an interview. Once there’s more clinical data for drugs currently in development, investors will be able to “cast a critical eye over who the real long-term winners will shake out to be.”
Here’s a roundup of developments this year and what to watch in 2025 (US prices are as of Friday’s close):
Eli Lilly (+32% YTD, market cap $729b)
Demand for Zepbound has been so big that Lilly boosted its annual revenue forecast twice this year, and is also investing to expand its manufacturing capabilities. However, its rapid ascent may be losing steam — particularly following an outlook cut in October. Investors are now watching for more data on its oral drug, orforglipron. “Having a highly efficacious oral small molecule drug which is well tolerated could be one way to address the issue with supply,” said Gregoire Biollaz, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management.
Novo Nordisk (-8.4% YTD, market cap $397b)
Until 2024, Novo shares had been on a tear for three years amid the success of its Wegovy and Ozempic shots. But competition has been rising and focus has shifted to next-generation drugs. The stock has been hit by disappointing safety data for a pill called monlunabant, a US Senate hearing on the pricing of key drugs, and the CagriSema results, which showed patients lost less weight than predicted.
Barclays Plc analysts are now watching for an update on a pill called amycretin, expected in the first quarter. Despite a not-so-hot year, some investors are staying positive. “We’re still optimistic on the outlook for Novo into 2025 and beyond as more supply comes on stream and there’s still strong demand for their products,” said Mark Denham, a fund manager and head of equities at Carmignac. Novo shares rallied as much as 10% on Monday.
Amgen (-8.6% YTD, market cap $142b)
Amgen Inc. shares hit a record high in September, but took a tumble just two months later, after its experimental obesity shot, MariTide, failed to significantly outperform rivals and showed a high rate of gastrointestinal side effects. Still, Amgen is betting that the less-frequent dosing schedule of its compound will be an advantage over existing drugs. Investors will be watching for further updates next year.
Zealand Pharma (+98% YTD, market cap $7.3b)
Zealand Pharma A/S shares have surged amid optimism about its petrelintide drug, which JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts predicted could generate $10 billion in peak sales. The drug targets obesity by mimicking amylin, a hormone released by the pancreas together with insulin, and the company has said it causes less nausea than some other next-generation contenders. Zealand Pharma is seeking a partner to help develop petrelintide, and JPMorgan sees a “good chance” this will happen by the end of next year.
Viking Therapeutics (+127% YTD, market cap $4.7b)
Viking Therapeutics Inc. is also seen as a potential disruptor of Lilly and Novo’s current duopoly. The shares soared earlier this year after results from a mid-stage trial of an injectable drug and early data on a pill formulation impressed analysts. Still, with so much competition in next-generation obesity medicines, Viking shares may face a tougher time in 2025. More data on its oral drug is expected next year, while Viking may also be a candidate for a partnership, given its small size.
Roche (+2.3% YTD, market cap $227b)
Roche Holding AG is a newcomer to watch in the obesity market. The stock jumped in July after its experimental pill showed meaningful weight reduction in an early-stage study, only to pare some of those gains in September after detailed results showed adverse side effects. Roche is also developing an injectable medicine that’s similar to Lilly’s Zepbound, and has a mid-stage trial underway for an injectable drug candidate in Type 1 diabetes patients with obesity. Results are expected next year.
Hims & Hers Health (+194% YTD, market cap $5.7b)
One clear winner in the sector this year isn’t even a typical drugmaker. Hims & Hers Health Inc. makes compound versions of Novo’s Wegovy (semaglutide) at a discount to the branded medication because US regulations allow pharmacies to make copycat versions of drugs in shortage. But the rally might not continue in 2025: the US Food and Drug Administration recently pulled Lilly’s compound, tirzepatide, off the shortage list and analysts at Leerink Partners said this probably signals an eventual resolution of the semaglutide shortage as well.
--With assistance from Naomi Kresge.
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