(Bloomberg) -- Take a look at the top-ranked forecaster for the latest US jobs report and you’ll see Jonathan Pingle of Natixis North America LLC.
And sitting in spot No. 2 under the UBS Securities LLC banner is also Jonathan Pingle... his father, that is.
“When I saw he moved into No. 1, I sent a congratulations in the family group chat,” said the father. “That was returned I think with a little gloating.”
Jonathan F. Pingle, 55, and his son Jonathan T. Pingle, 27, stressed that they don’t coordinate their work in any way, and they haven’t crossed paths professionally. Before taking on the chief US economist role at UBS in 2021, the older Pingle had stints at BlackRock Inc. and hedge fund Brevan Howard Asset Management.
He began his career conducting macroeconomic analysis for the Federal Reserve, working on the team that produces staff forecasts and regularly briefs the Board of Governors. His son was along for the ride from the get-go.
“I was in grad school at the University of Chicago when he was born and then getting my PhD at UNC Chapel Hill,” said the father. “He was surrounded by labor economists growing up.”
Joining Ranks
November marked the younger Pingle’s 15th forecast for the payrolls report in the last two years, making it the first month he was eligible to be ranked in the Bloomberg survey. He’d been conducting forecasts prior to that to refine his methods, and worked for Robin Brooks at the Institute of International Finance before starting at Natixis in May 2023.
“I really try to nail down the data composition of everything that I forecast,” the son said. That includes spending an “exorbitant” amount of time reading methodology handbooks from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes the payrolls report, and talking with its economists directly.
He also tracks comments by regional Fed officials and reviews central bank transcripts to see how policymakers model disruptions to the labor market. One key metric he looks at is the BLS strike report, which comes out the Friday before the employment data.
The elder Pingle held the top position in the survey for the August and September payrolls reports before slipping to second place in the last two months. About 75 economists submit a forecast every month for the payrolls estimate.
Each Pingle came within 23,000 payrolls of November’s figure. Even though some economists were closer to the actual number, rankings in the Bloomberg survey are established by a weighted score based on at least 15 of the last 24 estimates.
While there’s still a lot of uncertainty, the father-son duo said the labor market will continue to cool. Private payrolls growth has averaged around 100,000 for the past six months, which doesn’t bode well for sentiment about the job market overall, the father said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear at the central bank’s meeting this past week that policymakers’ focus has decidedly returned to inflation. But it could flip again in 2025, the older Pingle said.
“That pendulum might swing back towards concern over the labor market at some point next year,” he said.
--With assistance from Jonathan Ferro and Andrew Harrer.
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