(Bloomberg) -- Turkey is asserting itself as the main player in the shaping of Syria’s future, sending a top official to Damascus and restarting diplomatic relations after more than a decade.
Ibrahim Kalin, the head of the Turkish intelligence agency, made a symbolic visit to the landmark Umayyad Mosque in the Syrian capital on Thursday, surrounded by crowds. On Sunday, rebel leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, previously known by his nom de guerre Mohammed al-Jolani, delivered a victory speech marking the overthrow of former President Bashar al-Assad at the same mosque.
Turkey has a strong incentive to help forge a stable and peaceful Syria out of the ruins of the Assad regime, not least because the country hosts at least 3 million refugees from its southern neighbor. Turkish companies would also stand to benefit if and when postwar reconstruction starts. Turkey’s own ruling party hails from the country’s Islamist movement, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a supporter of similar parties in the region.
Hours after Kalin’s visit, Turkish state media reported the country had appointed a temporary charge d’affaires at the embassy in Damascus. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said late Friday that the embassy would start operations as of Saturday. Ankara froze daily operations there in 2012 over security concerns, after Erdogan backed Syrian opposition forces against his former friend Assad in the early stages of the war.
Syrians are free to use the Turkish lira as well as the US dollar in markets and shops, while external wire transfers to the country are coming through Turkey, according to people in both nations with knowledge of the situation.
Yet Ankara, like the US, still designates Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, the group that now controls Syria, as a terrorist organization. Questions remain about the extent to which the breakaway faction of al-Qaeda is sincere about its moderate stance and commitment to drop arms. As a NATO member, the extent of Turkey’s influence over HTS may help determine whether Syria can eventually return to the international community.
Israel and the US have been pursuing their own interests alongside Turkey, with the former carrying out a major air offensive on Syrian military assets to prevent them falling into hostile hands.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Jordan and Turkey on Thursday, as the Biden administration looks to play a role in the country’s future before Donald Trump returns to the White House next month. And in the first official letter from an Arab state, Bahrain King Hamad Isa Al Khalifa sent a letter to Al-Sharaa expressing a willingness to consult with Syria, the Bahraini state agency reported.
Debate has begun across the international community about whether the terrorist label could be removed from HTS, though its widely agreed that the initial priority should be to make sure Syrians are receiving essential services. As for HTS, commanders are saying the period between now and March 1 will be used to stabilize the situation and allow refugees to start to return.
They’ve also reached out to non-Muslim communities across Syria this week to reassure them that their rights and freedoms would be protected. Syria’s population is nearly 70% Sunni Muslim and the rest a mix of other faiths, including Christianity.
Kurdish Forces
One pivotal topic for both Turkey and the US is the future of Kurdish forces in the north of Syria. Ankara sees their presence as a threat because they are affiliated with the separatist Kurdish group, the PKK, which has waged a war for autonomy in Turkey’s southeast.
The US has allied with the group in its fight to push back Islamic State in Syria, and a potential resurgence of the US-designated terrorist organization is a major international concern about the post-Assad landscape.
Turkish officials have emphasized their security concerns remain a priority and they’ll take preventive measures if necessary. One goal is the creation of a buffer zone inside Syria across the length of their 900-plus-kilometer (560-mile) shared border.
Blinken acknowledged Turkey’s “real and clear interests” related to terrorism but said the US wants to avoid “sparking any kinds of additional conflicts inside of Syria,” especially related to the re-emergence of Islamic State, also known as ISIS.
“Critical to making sure that doesn’t happen is the so-called SDF, the Syrian Democratic Forces, that we’ve been supporting,” he told reporters.
In the wake of the collapse of Assad’s regime, Turkey-backed rebels pushed one of the main US-backed SDF factions out of two towns, expanding their control in the country’s north. Even so, Erdogan told Blinken on Thursday the country won’t allow the fight against ISIS to suffer, regardless of its moves against Kurdish forces.
Blinken met his Turkish counterpart Fidan on Friday morning, with discussions centering on the need for regional stability and keeping ISIS at bay, according to the two officials.
--With assistance from Sam Dagher, Dana Khraiche, Chris Miller and Ugur Yilmaz.
(Updates in fourth paragraph with the Turkish foreign minister’s comment.)
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