(Bloomberg) -- Dozens of people have died and hundreds have been sickened by a mystery flu-like illness dubbed ‘Disease X’ that was first detected in a remote region of the Democratic Republic of Congo in late October 2024. International health organizations and the Congolese authorities have dispatched teams to investigate, but they’ve yet to establish the cause. Those infected have suffered fever, headaches, coughs, runny noses and body aches. The high fatality rate and number of cases detected over a relatively short period has sparked concern about the emergence of a new pathogen with the potential to spread widely just a few years after Covid-19 forced countries to shut borders and brought economies and societies to a near standstill.
Why did it take so long to raise the alarm?
Roughly the size of Western Europe, Congo is one of the world’s least-developed countries and has a rudimentary health system with little diagnostic capacity to serve its population of more than 100 million people. ‘Disease X’ cases have centered around the Panzi health zone in Congo’s southwestern Kwango province, about 700 kilometers (435 miles) from the capital, Kinshasa. It can take about 48 hours to reach by road, with access all the more difficult during the rainy season. The national government was only alerted to the outbreak on Dec. 1.
What’s the likely cause?
No conclusive tests have been carried out so far, but for now the World Health Organization has listed acute pneumonia, influenza, Covid-19, measles and malaria as potential causal factors. It’s also possible that more than one disease is contributing to cases and deaths. The vast reservoir of viruses circulating in wildlife are seen as a likely source of new diseases. That’s because of their potential to spill over and infect other species, including humans, giving rise to an infection against which people will have no immunity.
How worried should we be?
It’s too early to say. Cases have only been detected in Congo so far and there is no indication of whether the outbreak has spread beyond Panzi, which doesn’t lie on a major transit route. The disease does appear to be serious for those who contract it, with young children particularly at risk. All of those who’ve been infected have been severely malnourished and most have been younger than 5. ‘Disease X’ emerged at a time of increased influenza circulation, and is likely to be linked to airborne diseases, according to Congo’s National Public Health Institute. The illness in Congo may not manifest in the same way in other places with different pre-existing health.
Where did the name Disease X originate?
The term was coined years ago as a way of getting scientists to work on medical countermeasures for unknown infectious threats, rather than the known ones, like the Ebola virus. The idea was to encourage the development of platform technologies, including vaccines, drug therapies and diagnostic tests, that could be rapidly adapted and deployed in response to an array of future outbreaks with epidemic or pandemic potential. The WHO added Disease X in 2017 to a short list of pathogens deemed a top priority for research, alongside known killers like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and the Marburg virus. Covid-19, caused by a novel coronavirus, was an example of a Disease X when it touched off the pandemic at the end of 2019.
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.