(Bloomberg) -- Viktor Orban’s critics have been waiting for years for a figure to credibly challenge his increasingly autocratic rule in Hungary. Few would have bet on Peter Magyar to be that person.
A 43-year-old former diplomat, Magyar had been a steadfast supporter of the Hungarian prime minister and a member of his ruling Fidesz party. His ex-wife was until last year Orban’s justice minister, another key minister his best friend. Magyar himself was head of a state company, a position often doled out to those with political connections.
So when he began to denounce the excesses of Orban’s 14-year tenure earlier this year after a pardon in a sex-abuse case toppled the president, some suspected a ploy by the premier to channel the uproar.
But few are saying that now. In less than 10 months, Magyar’s new party, Tisza, has surged, with a double-digit lead over Orban’s Fidesz in a recent poll. In 18 years, no single party has had an edge over Fidesz, which has benefited from a system with frequent election rule changes, a state-sponsored media juggernaut and common threats of political retribution.
In an interview with Bloomberg News, Magyar said his party was “in a flow” as rising frustration over a cost-of-living crisis and allegations of widespread corruption drive voters away from a prime minister who to many inside and outside Hungary had looked unassailable until now.
“More and more people are starting to believe that the ruling elite can be defeated,” Magyar said in the city of Szekesfehervar, southwest of Budapest. He was speaking after a rally in late November, one of several he does a day to expand his nascent party. “We’re just getting started.”
The reversal of Orban’s political fortunes at home contrasts with his momentum abroad. His ally Donald Trump is about to return to the White House. In France, Marine Le Pen is ascendant after helping topple the government. Her party is the biggest in Patriots, the far-right European Union group that was Orban’s brainchild.
Campaigning Begins
Orban has sought to cast Magyar as an agent doing the EU’s bidding. Successive Orban administrations have clashed with the bloc over the erosion of democratic rights and the EU is currently withholding about €20 billion ($21.1 billion) of Hungary’s funds due to accusations over graft and the rule of law.
“In Brussels they want a government in Hungary that does what they tell it,” Orban told state radio on Friday. “They’ve decided they want a change of government.”
Magyar’s rise shows that many Hungarians don’t see it that way. In Szekesfehervar, Orban’s birthplace and the city where Hungarian kings were once crowned, more than a thousand people turned out in the November cold to hear Magyar rail against the five-term premier, portraying him as central Europe’s Don Corleone, the fictional crime boss from The Godfather.
Magyar pledged to repair ties with the EU and unlock frozen funds to restore investor trust and finance teacher salaries and pensions. He also vowed to impose a two-term limit on future prime ministers. The crowd was a mix of generations — some brandishing torches, others Hungary’s red-white-and-green flag. Supporters mobbed Magyar for selfies.
“He’s the face of change,” said Timea Vadas, 34, who works in process management. “Look around us, every generation is here. We need to change the system.”
Elections aren’t scheduled until early 2026, but the campaigning is already in full swing. Attendance at Tisza meetings regularly dwarf those held by Fidesz, which has now jumped into the fray in a bid to stop its hemorrhaging support.
Magyar mostly steers clear of foreign policy, though he’s clear about bringing Hungary back into the European fold. Instead, he keeps his messaging focused on the perceived shortcomings of more than a decade of uninterrupted Fidesz rule: hospitals that often lack toilet paper, a teetering rail network and dilapidated children’s homes.
Surging Support
It’s a formula that appears to be working. Weeks after the telegenic Magyar posted a video interview in February that went viral, a hypothetical political group tied to him already polled at 13%. Three months later, Tisza secured 30% in the European Parliament election, second to Fidesz. In the latest Median poll, Tisza surged to 47% versus 36% for Fidesz.
“I haven’t seen anything like what Magyar is managing to pull off,” said Endre Hann, head of Median and one of the most experienced pollsters in Hungary.
Tisza is mopping up support from splintered opposition parties, in a threat to Orban, who has relied on exploiting divisions in the opposition camp. Magyar says his party has also started to win over ruling party supporters, estimating that up to a quarter of his backers are disaffected Fidesz or first-time voters.
“I come from a right-wing family, I had always voted Fidesz,” Magyar said. “So I know them and I know exactly the voters that they’ve left by the wayside.”
Inside Orban’s Fidesz, there are rumblings that the prime minister has been too focused on his foreign policy forays and has dropped the ball by allowing the emergence of a credible opposition.
Freelance Diplomacy
Orban held talks with Trump on Monday at the president-elect’s Mar-a-Lago resort, the latest in a series of meetings that the Hungarian premier has sought to cast himself as an interlocutor between Europe and the next US administration on key issues, including the war in Ukraine.
As Hungary assumed the EU’s rotating presidency in July, Orban undertook what he billed as a peace mission that left EU and NATO allies as well as the leadership in Kyiv seething after uncoordinated meetings with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
It burnished the notoriety of the 61-year-old leader, who had become a far-right icon for his anti-establishment and often pro-Russian rhetoric and his seeming political invincibility at home.
Trump has praised him as a “fantastic leader” and “the boss” for his tight control. But as Orban rubs shoulders on the international stage, Fidesz’s dominance has continued to slip at home.
So far, not even Orban’s formidable media machine appears to be working on Magyar. It’s comprised of hundreds of outlets from television to print to news websites and is helmed by state television, which functions as the mouthpiece of Fidesz and which rarely allows opposition lawmakers into its studios.
The media apparatus has decimated former Orban challengers, but appears to have bounced off Magyar, a lawyer by training who has a knack for turning the table and who’s leveraged social media to build a mass following. Magyar says one of the first steps if he wins power would be to stop funding the pro-Orban networks and restore the public broadcaster’s independence.
Truman Show
“This is going to be like the Truman show,” Magyar said, making reference to the hit movie with Jim Carrey, who plays a character oblivious to the fake world he inhabits. “As soon as people come face to face with reality, Fidesz’s support will crumble.”
There are plenty of obstacles to overcome before that. Skeptics wonder whether Magyar can maintain the momentum for the long months until the 2026 election. He’s also something of a one-man show. The Tisza leader acknowledged the challenge of building a party that can field 106 candidates to stand for the next parliamentary contest.
The Fidesz-dominated parliament is also reviewing another round of redrawing the electoral map to remove some districts from opposition-dominated Budapest. Magyar expects more tweaks to Tisza’s detriment, despite government denials.
“We need to win big,” Magyar said. “There’s a level of support where no amount of gerrymandering will change the result.”
(Updates with Orban-Trump meeting in 20th paragraph.)
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