(Bloomberg) -- The gap between emerging-market and US stocks is the widest in more than three decades as investors largely shun developing-world assets. Lazard Inc.’s chief executive officer says that’s poised to change.
Emerging markets remain “under-owned” and there are reasons for optimism on the back of a pickup in corporate-earnings growth, falling US interest rates and attractive valuations, Peter Orszag wrote in a LinkedIn post.
“The global willingness to invest in EM equities remains tepid thus far, but the outlook now appears encouraging for the asset class,” Orszag wrote in the post with Lazard’s James Donald and David Jauregui. The underperformance “may be changing,” they said.
The MSCI Inc. gauge for developing-world equities trades near its lowest-ever level relative to the S&P 500 Index since the late 1980s, data compiled by Bloomberg show. EM stocks have handed investors a 5.6% loss over the past three years, compared to a 32% gain for the S&P 500.
The asset class has taken a hit from a slowdown in China’s economy and fiscal and political concerns in Latin America. More recently, some expect the election of Donald Trump to keep shoring up US equity markets amid a deregulation agenda while draining flows to emerging markets.
While changes in tariffs and immigration policies could lead to a stronger US dollar, Orszag argues that a simple reversion to the mean in the allocation of global portfolios would represent inflows of $910 billion for emerging markets.
Investors seeking to diversify “and guard against a risk of valuation derating in US equities” may consider adding EM equities to their portfolios, Orszag wrote.
--With assistance from Srinivasan Sivabalan.
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