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State-Level Data Suggest US Payroll Weakness Is Likely Temporary

(Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Employment fell in Florida and Washington last month amid two hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing Co., adding to evidence that the significant pullback seen in the national hiring data is likely temporary.

Nonfarm payrolls in Florida decreased by 38,000 in the month of October, marking the biggest drop since 2017 excluding the onset of the Covid pandemic. And employment declined by 35,900 in Washington, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton impacted Florida in September and October, leaving many temporarily unable to work as businesses were forced to shut. The BLS said in the release it is likely that payroll employment estimates in some states were affected by the storms, though “it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in employment, hours, or earnings estimates.”

Still, the state-level figures offer insight into the impact of the hurricanes and the weeks-long Boeing strike — which has since ended — on the October jobs report published on Nov. 1, which showed US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020.

Nonfarm payrolls in Florida decreased the most in the construction, leisure and hospitality and trade and transportation sectors — which include businesses that would likely be impacted by storms — and manufacturing payrolls in Washington plunged.

Abiel Reinhart, an analyst for JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a note Tuesday that based on past storms, “we would expect most to all of the recovery in employment to come in the November report.”

--With assistance from Vince Golle.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.