(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin recovered from its biggest two-day retreat since the US election in choppy trading that reflects shifting assessments of the impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda.
The digital asset fell almost 3% over Saturday and Sunday before rising to a high of $92,215 on Monday. Some of those gains were pared to around $90,675 as of 10:29 a.m. in New York. Trump has made various pro-crypto pledges but there are open questions about the timetable for implementation and whether all are feasible — such as setting up a US Bitcoin stockpile.
Bitcoin became “overheated” after a record-breaking advance since Election Day on Nov. 5, and “a lot of good news has been built into the price,” IG Australia Pty Market Analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.
Inflation Risks
While Trump’s business-friendly stance has enlivened US equity and crypto investors alike, some of the optimism is being tempered by inflation risks from the prospect of trade tariffs and deficit-spending to fund tax cuts.
Investors are scaling back expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in a solid US economy, a possible hurdle for crypto since liquidity conditions can influence speculative demand for digital tokens.
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold decoupled immediately after election night, a group of Citigroup analysts wrote in a note Monday, and is unlikely to return while risk-on sentiment supports crypto and macro headwinds remain for gold. “We have long argued that Bitcoin’s ‘digital gold’ moniker was not yet appropriate, especially vis-à-vis portfolio allocation,” they said. “Gold continues to have the clear advantage in serving as a store of value, despite both assets being limited-supply, non-coupon-bearing instruments.”
Trump has vowed to create a friendly regulatory framework for digital assets, set up a strategic Bitcoin stockpile and make the US the industry’s global hub. A onetime crypto skeptic, the president-elect changed tack after digital-asset firms spent heavily during election campaigning to promote their interests.
“Equities remain the most significant macro driver of crypto,” the Citigroup analysts said, noting that the correlation between digital assets and stocks is likely to remain elevated until Trump’s economic policies become clearer. “The crypto-USD correlation turned positive on November 8th, which has been quite a rare occurrence in recent years though it typically does not last very long,” they said.
Regulation Shift
Crypto legislation may be approved soon under a Trump administration, spurring a shift away from regulation by enforcement to a more collaborative approach, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note.
Banks could enjoy greater scope to engage with digital assets, the team said, and markets are more hopeful of approval for crypto exchange-traded funds investing in tokens other than just the top two, Bitcoin and Ether.
Regulatory clarity would be a tailwind for venture capital investing, mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings, according to the strategists. But the establishment of a US Bitcoin reserve is a “low-probability event,” they added.
US spot-Bitcoin ETFs attracted a net inflow of $4.7 billion from Nov. 6 to Nov. 13, the day the original cryptocurrency set an all-time peak of $93,462, data compiled by Bloomberg show. About $771 million exited the products over Thursday and Friday, leaving the group with total assets of $95 billion.
(Updates price in second paragraph, adds context on equities and gold from sixth paragraph onward.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.