(Bloomberg) -- The US stocks rally is nowhere near done, according to Evercore ISI strategists, who see Donald Trump’s plans to slice through red tape propelling the S&P 500 Index another 11% through the middle of next year.
History shows the bull market is “still an infant,” Julian Emanuel wrote in a note. “This market will be driven higher by the policy prospect of deregulation in DC,” he said, setting a price target for the index of 6,600 points by end-June 2025.
In the past 100 years, the benchmark gauge has averaged a 152% gain over 50 months during bull markets, research by Emanuel’s team shows. In the latest case, the index has rallied 65% since hitting a low in October 2022, with technology heavyweights driving the bulk of the advance.
And though stock valuations already look lofty, “expensive has a history of getting more expensive and lasting longer with greater gains,” Emanuel said.
The S&P 500 surged to a record on Wednesday after Trump’s presidential win as his plans for loser regulation and lower corporate taxes were seen boosting company earnings. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks hit a three-year high on speculation those firms will benefit more from Trump’s protectionist stance.
Seasonal trends into the year end also bode well for stocks more broadly. The S&P 500 has gained an average 4.1% in the fourth quarter in the past 20 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — among the most notable bearish voices on US stocks last year — said this week that the benchmark can keep climbing into the final stretch of the year.
--With assistance from Cristin Flanagan.
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