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IPO Market Holdouts Look to 2025 as Trump Retakes White House

(Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s victory in the race for the White House is set to inspire companies that have stuck to the sidelines to go public in the US as soon as next year, capitalizing on the stock market’s positive reaction and the president-elect’s promises to cut red tape.

Large rallies emerged across many of the market’s riskiest corners in the wake of Trump’s decisive win, with the Russell 2000 Index jumping to near a three-year high. The S&P 500 Index traded to a record of its own, cementing that the backdrop for investors to take on risk through buying shares of unproven companies has rarely been better. The VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” tumbled back to the lowest level since September.

“The election was an overhang — it’s not the only factor taken into account — but the outcome will now set up some private equity firms to initiate their processes,” said Steve Parish, co-head of ICR Capital. “For companies that are starting their process or are on the fence for a 2025 IPO, this could provide a boost to encourage them to push forward.”

Nearly $40 billion has been raised via initial public offerings on US exchanges this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s a 64% jump from the stretch seen in 2023 through Nov. 6, but still below the average in the decade before the pandemic — including three quarters of Trump’s first term in office, the data show. 

Pro-Cryto Candidate

Bitcoin also powered to a record, as investors digested the prospect of the pro-cryptocurrency candidate unleashing a wave of debuts that had been held up for years amid regulatory scrutiny. That could change if current US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler steps down or if Trump makes good on a promise to fire him.

While it’d depend who takes the reins, it’s likely the industry would expect the Trump administration to nominate leadership which is more favorable to crypto assets based on his commentary supporting digital assets, said Matthew Kimmell, digital asset analyst at crypto asset manager and research firm CoinShares.

“A second Trump administration could influence the outlook for crypto IPOs, but the extent of impact will largely depend on changes in SEC leadership and the regulatory framework they establish,” Kimmell said.

Circle Internet Financial Ltd.’s chief executive officer has been vocal about its intention to IPO, while crypto exchange Kraken and trading platform eToro are also considering going public. 

An immediate surge in IPO activity isn’t in the cards, given that the list of companies that have paperwork publicly on file with the SEC is relatively short. For already-listed companies and their largest shareholders, however, Wednesday’s rally could be the spark they need in order to cash in. 

Companies will likely take advantage of the rally to raise growth capital and give insiders liquidity, said West Riggs, head of equity capital markets at Truist Securities Inc. 

“I would also expect an increase in convertible issuance,” Riggs said. “This is due in part to the rally in underlying equities but also due to the recent spike in rates.”

While Riggs doesn’t expect the IPO calendar to be pulled forward, there will be continued confidence in the demand for a larger set of IPOs next year and beyond, he said.

“There is no question that if you’ve been looking for a reason to do an IPO, anything that looked cloudy yesterday now looks like bright sunshine,” said Peter Atwater of Financial Insyghts and an adjunct professor at William & Mary and the University of Delaware. “Particularly for those industries that are tangentially related to the Trump trade, but there is a broader sense that the Trump administration will be positive for business.”

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.