(Bloomberg) -- We all have questions. Lots of them, in fact, about how Election Night and the subsequent days are going to play out and what it means for global economic policy, for securities markets around the world and even for America’s experiment with democracy.
Bloomberg Television anchors and reporters asked a number of financial and political professionals what they will be watching as results start rolling, revealing whether Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump will occupy the Oval Office next year.
Here are their answers, edited for length and clarity:
Ed Al-Hussainy
“Currency markets, particularly currency markets overnight, are going to be the most liquid and perhaps the strongest signal. I would be watching for strength in the dollar, particularly versus the euro and emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso as a first reaction, particularly if the results start to indicate that Republicans are likely to take the White House and control of Congress. The opposite if there is a Democratic sweep.” — Ed Al-Hussainy, Columbia Threadneedle global rates strategist
Linda Duessel
“Virginia is one of those where how quickly might Harris take over and win — and if she doesn’t, if they don’t announce by 9 at night, for example, that might mean a long night for her. That could potentially, I guess, move markets even further to ‘Trump is going to pull this out.’” — Linda Duessel, Federated Hermes senior equity strategist
Kevin McCarthy
“Pennsylvania, because we elect presidents not by popular vote, but Electoral College. The last election was won by few votes. Donald Trump would get pretty much the same electoral states that he got before and I believe he would pick up Georgia. If he picks up Pennsylvania, it is over — he got to 270. He wouldn’t need Arizona or Nevada. When you look at where the play is, even the union voters in Pennsylvania overwhelmingly support Trump over Kamala.” — Republican former US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy
Jeanne Sheehan Zaino
“I am paying close attention to the gender divide, particularly as it concerns Gen Z where the divide seems to be most apparent. In 2020, almost seven out of 10 Gen Z women went for Biden. Can Harris match or grow that, especially given the impact of the Dobbs decision and the way in which this campaign has closed on gendered appeals on both sides. Likewise, in 2020, Gen Z men also went for Biden, given his almost singular focus on attracting this group of often disengaged and hard to reach voters, the question is whether Trump is able to flip this script and get at least a majority? — Bloomberg Politics Contributor and Iona University Political Science Professor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino
David Kostin
“Is there a split Congress versus the presidency — that would suggest there are certain executive actions that can be taken, whether that’s respect to tariffs, whether it’s respect to certain regulation aspects,” Kostin said. “Whereas if there’s a sweep on the Democrat or the Republican side, either direction, there are potential legislative aspects. ... The second is, we think about, well, what are the impacts of potential tariffs? ... Well, US companies that are selling domestically are likely to outperform US companies that export more to the rest of the world because there could be retaliatory tariffs.” — David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist
Subadra Rajappa
“I’ll be looking at what the reaction function is. First and foremost, in the bond market, the dollar’s going to be somewhere we could see a decent reaction in the event of a Trump win and the potential for tariffs. Gold has been somewhere where we’ve seen a lot of price action already. I’d say that some of the other markets have not fully priced-in the Trump trade are going to see perhaps much more meaningful move, perhaps in equities as well as credit. So I’d be looking to see what the reaction is in bonds as well as in risky assets.” — Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of US rates strategy
Joe Trippi
“This thing could go on for days after the election. I mean, we need to expect that it could be clear, a winner called that night, that’s totally possible... But it doesn’t mean that it won’t be questioned, that doubt won’t be out there, that legal challenges will happen, that Trump will not agree that he lost if he did. I think the 76 days between Nov. 5th through Jan. 20th, the Inauguration Day, may be just as important as what happens on Election Night.” — Joe Trippi, Democratic political consultant
Alex Chaloff
“There’s so much vol right now in the market, maybe not expressed in the VIX per se, but the 10-year, you’re seeing currency, the dollar’s having some interesting moves and you’re seeing some sectors move around. You know, over the last couple of weeks, quality has really carried it out. People are moving into the low vol space. They want safety, they want security, they’re trading for dividend yield. Their hedge funds are de-risking. You talk to the prime brokers and the desks, everyone’s taking down the risk and just saying, ‘Not this time. I don’t want to be exposed in the wrong way.’” — Alex Chaloff, Bernstein Private Wealth Management chief investment officer
Michael Contopoulos
“Certainly we will look at the long end of the yield curve. I don’t think the election matters much for the long-term direction of what yields will ultimate do. But more importantly, more broadly in terms of the election, I’m looking for a contested election. ... I think it could increase volatility a bit across markets. Being a bit overweight volatility as you head into the election and into the potential outcome is not a bad place to be.” — Michael Contopoulos, Richard Bernstein Advisors head of fixed income
Rob Casey
“We’re really hoping to get results from North Carolina early, most of the results from Georgia early. But if there’s sort of one other thing I would look at, is Kamala Harris outperforming in urban areas among all voters, but primarily Black and Latino voters and young voters. If she can outperform there as well as outperform among White women, the election is hers.” — Rob Casey, Signum Global Advisors partner and senior analyst
--With assistance from Scarlet Fu, Lisa Abramowicz, Kailey Leinz, Sonali Basak, Jonathan Ferro, Annmarie Hordern, Matthew Miller, Katie Greifeld and Romaine Bostick.
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