(Bloomberg) -- Some investors are betting that the race to protect stock portfolios from volatility around the US election will fade, a pattern that’s often seen following potentially market-moving events.
The ratio of put options to call options traded on the Cboe Volatility index was the highest level since 2020 on Monday, Barclays Plc strategists flagged in a note. More than one million put contracts changed hands on Monday alone, some outright and many as part of spreads, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“While polls in swing states still remain tightly contested, one outcome most investors agree with is that uncertainty will likely decline post-elections,” Barclays strategists including Stefano Pascale and Anshul Gupta wrote in the note.
The VIX — which measures expected swings in the S&P 500 a month out — has been unusually high relative to actual market swings, as traders paid an extra premium for protection with the US election tightly contested and highly contentious. Buying the puts would be a bet that the surge in that implied volatility will fade back to more normal levels.
Meanwhile, comparing pricing to recent prior elections shows that the absolute level of the VIX is around the middle of the range, compared to five recent presidential contests, according to data compiled by Bloomberg for the day prior to each vote. Monday’s closing level of about 22 was above 2004, 2012 and 2016, but below the Global Financial Crisis year of 2008 and the Covid-19 period of 2020.
Looking ahead, a number of factors are seen as potentially supporting a late-year stock rally — including a drop in volatility.
“The removal of the uncertainty will bring a reset in volatility that may see increased allocation from volatility control funds and the potential for a flattening of the index skew,” Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief derivatives strategist, said in a note.
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