(Bloomberg) -- The several hundred people gathered inside a hall in the Moldovan village of Pirlita wore winter clothes to keep out the chill. Heating is a luxury the local mayor can’t afford, even when the president visits.
The scene was a sharp reminder of the economic backdrop for Maia Sandu, the country’s leader the past four years, as she seeks re-election in a runoff vote on Sunday that has geopolitical implications beyond the tiny nation.
Moldova is one of the poorest places in Europe, sandwiched between the relative riches of Romania and war-torn Ukraine. Sandu is determined to persuade her country the path toward European Union integration is the right one, but it’s also one Russia is keen to derail. A referendum two weeks ago on future membership unexpectedly saw Moldova split down the middle.
Sandu, 52, faces Alexandr Stoianoglo, 57, a former general prosecutor who favors closer ties with Moscow, with everything to play for. Sandu secured 42% of the vote in the first round held the same day as the EU referendum versus 26% for her opponent. The gap is expected to have significantly narrowed as Stoianoglo picks up ballots from other pro-Russian candidates.
While Sandu has enjoyed the support of EU leaders passing through the country in recent months, her opponent has benefited from what Western governments have called a disinformation campaign led by pro-Russian politicians. Moldovan authorities also accused Russia of bribing voters, which Moscow denies.
The vote comes a week after Georgia, another former Soviet state with ambitions for Western integration, backed a Kremlin-friendly leader in an election disputed by international observers and some European leaders. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Moldova could be next.
“The fact that the referendum passed is essential for Moldova’s future, but looking at what happened in Georgia we’re in a totally different paradigm,” said Iulian Chifu, chairman of the Bucharest-based Center for Conflict Prevention and Early Warning. “Maia Sandu seems to have understood that and took some good steps, but she still needs to secure more votes.”
Sandu is counting on the villages where she placed second and third in the first round of voting. In the cold hall in Pirlita, she was mobbed by people with bouquets of yellow chrysanthemums, a ubiquitous flower in autumn and the color of her Action and Solidarity Party.
Also hailing from a village, Sandu pointed to the importance of European money in building new roads, schools and sewage systems. If a pro-Russian candidate wins the presidency, she said, this support will stop.
She told the elderly audience that for young people to return to the country — one of the most quickly depopulating in the world — Moldova needs to grow its economy and that’s only possible with the support of the West. She acknowledged mistakes, asking them to give her more time to push through much-needed reforms, especially in the judiciary.
“I know that we have many problems, but we should not set fire to the country because we got angry,” said Sandu.
But the scale of her challenge was also evident. Many locals say they still don’t feel the positive impacts of European funds. They’re concerned about rising prices, scarce jobs and basics like a lack of drinking water. The pro-Russia message is that the EU is to blame.
Some villagers asked whether Christian Orthodox church celebrations would be banned if Moldova joins the EU. They said they read on social media platform Telegram that the EU will take away their land, bring war, and even forbid keeping chickens in backyards. They applauded when Sandu reassured them.
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One younger man in the audience, Anatol, said he was waiting for the result of the election to decide whether or not to stay in Moldova. He said incomes are low and prices are high and the country needs the prospect of EU integration or there’s no point in staying.
“We don’t want us young people to have to leave,” he said. “But for that, you in government should have done more, and those who contributed to corrupting the votes should go on trial.”
Sandu’s struggle was most apparent during a debate with her opponent on Oct. 27. While she stressed her stance against Russia, Stoianoglo advocated “good ties with all partners — the EU, the US, Russia and China” and stopped short of condemning Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine.
While Sandu branded him as Moscow’s “Trojan horse,” Stoianoglo has struck a more cautious tone than previous pro-Russian politicians in Moldova. He said he wasn’t against EU integration but dismissed the referendum as a move by Sandu to boost her support. He accused her of incompetence, mismanaging the economy and leading the country into deeper divides.
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How Sandu arrived at this critical juncture goes back a decade to when she was serving as Moldova’s minister of education. A Harvard-educated economist, Sandu had left the World Bank in Washington to take up the role.
Her reforms merging small schools in depopulating villages were so unpopular that colleagues openly betted on how long she would last, she said. But another event that put Moldova on the map turned out to be more of a defining moment.
In 2014, $1 billion was siphoned out of three state-owned banks, costing Moldova the equivalent of 12% of its gross domestic product. The crisis turned her into a prominent pro-European figure opposed to the oligarchs that controlled swathes of the economy.
Two years later, she narrowly lost to pro-Russian President Igor Dodon, whose campaign derided her as an unmarried woman, before beating him in 2020 by promising to tackle corruption. Stoianoglo is the candidate backed by Dodon’s party this time around.
Sandu’s four years in power have been turbulent as Russia’s war next door in Ukraine escalated the tension within Moldova while whacking the already fragile economy. Gross domestic product per capita is still less than half that of Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member.
If she retains power, it will be a prelude to another fight between pro-Western and pro-Russian political forces next year when the country holds parliamentary elections. The Russia-based Pravda newspaper called the presidential vote simply a “rehearsal for the main political battle.”
Yet Sandu is popular among Moldova’s large diaspora, which bolstered her support in the first round and ensured the EU referendum on enshrining membership in the constitution ended up passing by a whisker, 50.4%. Those people may again swing the vote on Sunday.
Winning over voters at home remains the key challenge, especially given their disillusionment with the country’s future and their susceptibility to disinformation. Polls had shown support for the EU at 60% before the vote.
One story Sandu uses is how her mother confronted two women on a trolleybus in the capital, Chisinau, who claimed the president had sent her to the US.
“The stakes are much higher now because the first round of the presidential elections and the referendum showed that fighting Russian disinformation isn’t easy,” said Chifu, who expects her to win. “If before, everyone was expecting a landslide victory from her part and to crush any opponent, now we’ll probably see a much tighter result.”
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