(Bloomberg) -- It’s been a longstanding knock on the Democratic Party: Its national candidates might win more votes, but its state and local officials fall short in races that matter for everything from abortion access to certifying elections.
Growing initiatives backed by venture capitalists and others are trying to narrow the gap with Republicans, whose billionaire donors from the Kochs to Ken Griffin have focused for years on swinging thousands of down-ballot races. The pitch of the platforms, like Oath and the States Project, is a “Moneyball” style approach to political giving, driving dollars to tight contests that are, in theory, most likely to tip the scales. The States Project also advises candidates and lawmakers.
Funneling money to down-ballot races has taken on heightened importance since the 2020 presidential election, when some state officials questioned their obligation to certify the results. The US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade two years later has thrust the fate of women’s reproductive rights into the hands of statehouses rather than Washington.
Oath, which launched three years ago, took in $2 million in the the 2022 cycle; for 2024, it has disbursed more than $32 million, with the biggest share going to Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
“Having this comprehensive strategy where we are optimizing for the marginal impact of every dollar really resonates,” said Brian Derrick, the platform’s co-founder. “A majority of donors are interested in the strategic value of the seat, rather than the personality.”
The effort to most effectively deploy money in some ways mirrors the movement in broader philanthropy. Smaller nonprofits, which historically have struggled to raise dollars from affluent donors who gravitate to well-known and larger organizations, have benefited from tools and ratings to surface the most effective charities.
Oath, backed by VC investors who are active Democratic donors, resembles a passive donor adviser. It uses pre-set filters, such as cause (like flipping the state legislature, climate change, mental health and gun safety), to direct dollars based on thousands of data points. It gets more money from women — largely those living in Democratic enclaves — than men (though in 2022 it assisted billionaire Sam Altman with his $250,000 of giving).
‘Relatively Cheap’
Rachael Bedard, a doctor from Brooklyn, had been looking to reach into multiple state races with an investment of “a few hundred thousand to low millions” of dollars.
After her focus on state ballot initiatives related to abortion paid off in 2022, she and her husband made a multi-year commitment to the States Project, which was founded by a former politician, Daniel Squadron, and investor Adam Pritzker.
The States Project is focused on a slate of state legislative races in nine states. The $70 million it’s on track to take in — up from $60 million in 2022 — will go to candidates, state caucuses and on-the-ground efforts to win votes. Most of the money flows through the PAC for America’s Future.
“The states are relatively cheap,” Bedard said. “It’s an amount of money that can make a really big difference.”
Jason Anderson, who’s running for a state senate seat in Kansas’ Johnson County, is among the politicians feeling the impact from these down-ballot efforts.
Oath money accounts for almost 20% of the more than $100,000 raised for his campaign. Most of it flowed in after the Democratic National Convention, when the platform pushed its “blue wave” messaging.
“The great challenge we have here is a lot of conservative dark money flows into Kansas,” Anderson said. The Koch family’s Americans for Prosperity group spent more than $300,000 during the primary on behalf of down-ballot candidates.
“We are not going to raise $300,000 for a state senate campaign that has maybe 55,000 voters,” he said. “Having that boost of capital is extremely helpful.”
Less Annoying
The States Project has seen a tremendous amount of energy sucked into the presidential race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris this cycle, driving up the prices to local campaigns for mailings and advertising.
“The huge surge that Harris has seen in fundraising across the country has not trickled down,” said Simone Leiro, a spokesperson for the States Project. “The down-ballot races just aren’t seeing that type of excitement, even though her campaign plays into the state level.”
Another way that the platforms are seeking to appeal to their users, which skew younger than the typical political donor: They’ll be less annoying than national campaigns. Oath, for its part, promises users they won’t receive a barrage of texts and emails that all say effectively the same thing.
That would help create “a sustainable and engaged donor community that doesn’t feel burnt out all the time,” Derrick said.
If Oath and others like it keep growing, he said, they “could basically do what the conservative movement did over the last 40 years in four or five years, by completely changing how progressives and Democrats invest at every level of the ballot.”
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