(Bloomberg) -- Bayer AG’s kidney drug Kerendia helped patients avoid complications from a common form of heart failure in a study, a boost for the company’s pharma division as it looks to overcome multiple challenges.
Kerendia reduced the relative risk of death and other serious events related to the form of heart failure, where pumping ability is reduced mildly at most, by 16%, according to a statement Sunday. The late-stage trial compared the therapy against a placebo in 6,000 adults suffering from the condition, which affects about 30 million people worldwide and lacks new treatments, the company said.
Bayer shares rose as much as 1.4% in early German trading. The stock has fallen about 45% percent in the past 12 months.
Bayer’s pharma unit is seeking new sources of growth to counteract falling revenue anticipated in coming years from top-selling blood thinner Xarelto and eye medicine Eylea, both of which face new competition from cheaper generics. Sales of Kerendia for kidney disease have been disappointing, and Bayer has placed high hopes for its success in heart failure, Stefan Oelrich, head of the company’s pharma unit, told investors earlier this year.
In January 2023, Bayer forecast Kerendia sales to potentially exceed €3 billion ($3.32 billion) annually, but the company has abandoned that target. Currently, the average of analysts’ estimates for the drug’s peak sales is €2.22 billion in 2033, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The results of this study should restore investor confidence in Kerendia peak sales of €3 billion, Peter Verdult, an analyst at Citi, said in a note.
Bayer had said in early August that the drug hit the goal of the study. The detailed findings were presented at the European Society of Cardiology Congress in London and simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The data slightly exceeded the expectations of Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at Union Investment, a Bayer shareholder. Manns said in an email last week that he foresaw efficacy of about 15% for Kerendia in the study. At that level, he said, Kerendia should be able to reach peak annual sales of €2 billion to €3 billion.
The company said it would apply for regulatory approval in heart failure, without specifying when.
--With assistance from Lisa Pham.
(Updates with shares in third paragraph)
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