(Bloomberg) -- Strong flows from corporate buybacks and systematic funds should drive the S&P 500 Index to a new all-time high this week, further increasing investors’ FOMO, according to Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“We estimate $17 billion of unemotional demand between robots and corporates every day this week,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients Monday. “There is a very positive three-week equity trading window until Sept. 16.”
The S&P 500 is down 0.3% Monday and less than 1% from the record closing high on July 16.
Rubner reiterated the view from Goldman’s trading desk that the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot on interest rates, as embodied by Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Friday, gave the green light to re-levering, so “the pain trade for equities is higher into mid-September.”
Goldman is modeling a so-called “green sweep” for commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, over the coming week, which means those funds will likely be buying stocks however the market trades. In addition, Goldman’s corporate buyback desk last week saw its largest demand of the year, more than twice the same period in 2023, and Rubner sees strong buying until the quarterly blackout window arrives on Sept. 13. And there were $20 billion of inflows into global equities from passive investors last week.
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“Everyone is going back to the pool,” he wrote. “US systematic strategies have now overshot exposure to the downside.”
That said, demand may run out three weeks from now, which would mean a skew back to the downside, Rubner warned.
The next big test for the market arrives on Wednesday after the bell when Nvidia Corp. is expected to post second-quarter earnings and revenue that are ore than double from a year ago. The options market is implying about a 9.35% move, or a roughly $298 billion market swing, off the chip giant’s results, according to Rubner’s calculations.
“The bar for Nvidia this earnings season is a lot lower than it has been in recent quarters given fundamental selling in tech,” Rubner wrote, referring to hedge funds unloading positions in the technology sector. “Can you imagine if NVDA beats expectations on Wednesday?”
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