(Bloomberg) -- Applications for US unemployment benefits barely rose last week, indicating the labor market is moderating only gradually.
Initial claims increased by 4,000 to 232,000 in the week ended Aug. 17, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out some of the volatility, fell to the lowest in a month.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, edged up to 1.86 million in the week ended Aug. 10. When that number rises, it suggests that unemployed people are having more difficulty finding a job.
The slight pickup in claims reinforces that the labor market is cooling only gradually rather than rapidly slowing under the weight of restrictive Federal Reserve policy. That will keep the central bank on track to start cutting interest rates next month as hiring slows and unemployment rises.
Separate government data out Wednesday showed payroll growth in the year through March is likely to be marked down by the most since 2009, suggesting the labor market began moderating much sooner than originally thought.
Several Fed officials acknowledged there was a plausible case for cutting rates in July and most saw higher risks to their employment goal, according to minutes of last month’s meeting released Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday at the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is likely to be highly scrutinized for clues on the trajectory of monetary policy and framing of the job market.
Jobless claims can be noisy from week to week, especially at this time of year when they’re prone to swings due to school closures for summer break and retooling at auto factories. The four-week moving average, a closely watched metric that helps smooth out the data, eased to 236,000 in the week ended Aug. 17.
Initial claims, before adjustment for seasonal factors, dropped to 191,576, the lowest since late April. That was led by declines in Michigan and Texas, which both registered large increases last month.
--With assistance from Chris Middleton and Cécile Daurat.
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