(Bloomberg) -- Investors will have a brief window to buy the dip in US stocks at the end of this month as selling pressure from systematic funds eases while companies boost share buybacks, according to Scott Rubner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“This will be my last bearish equity markets call for August as we are ending the worst of the equity supply and demand mismatch for August,” Rubner, the firm’s global markets division managing director and tactical specialist, wrote in a note to clients on Monday. He said he will turn tactically bullish on equities on Aug. 30.
Rubner advised in late June to trim exposure in US stocks after July 4, and that equities were in “the last legs of the melt-up” until July 17. As it turned out, the S&P 500 Index set a record closing high on July 16 and is down around 6% from that level.
Stocks were little changed Monday after a wild stretch last week, when investors absorbed a bruising amount of volatility fueled by concerns the Federal Reserve is waiting too long to cut interest rates. The benchmark lost ground the past four weeks, its longest losing streak since 2023.
Rules-based systematic funds that follow market signals and volatility patterns offloaded $109 billion worth of global equity futures in the past month, according to Goldman.
Rubner sees selling pressure persisting in the next seven days, but says he’s “seen enough evidence and reduction in positioning that the worst market technicals are behind us.”
Positioning, he says, “will be super clean” to start a September rally. He “will be buying this dip” in first half of the month and will “alert you when it’s all clear.”
Another reason stocks may rebound is that “the August to September corporate repurchase window is historically strong,” trailing only November-December, he wrote.
“We currently estimate that 90% of the S&P 500 is in the open window” and it closes again on Sept. 6, he wrote. “Corporates will likely take advantage of this dip, with $4.75 billion worth of daily purchasing power until the closed window.”
Rubner warns investors that the outlook deteriotates after a certain point in September, as the second half of the month is the worst two-week period of the year for stocks.
For the rest of the year, he said, the market “really will not have the clear trendline higher” until the fourth quarter and after the US November elections, Rubner wrote.
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