(Bloomberg) -- When world leaders gathered in Switzerland in June to discuss the war in Ukraine, the choreography offered a glimpse into the power games playing out behind the scenes in Kyiv as Volodymyr Zelenskiy seeks to maintain support.
As the presidents and prime ministers gathered for the family photo in the picturebook Alpine setting, a towering Ukrainian official in green fatigues was positioned in the center of the group, barely an arm’s length from his boss.
Anyone who’s dealt with the Ukrainian president is likely to recognize Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff who is constantly at his side. His incongruous position — in front of US Vice President Kamala Harris, between the Swiss president and the future head of NATO — indicates the growing influence of Zelenskiy’s closest adviser within Ukraine’s wartime hierarchy. An adviser to Yermak said the lineup for the picture was organized by the Swiss hosts and Yermak’s inclusion reflected his role in the meeting.
As Russia’s assault stretches deep into its third year, some of Ukraine’s international backers are growing concerned about just how much decision making is concentrated in the hands of 52-year-old Yermak, a one-time film producer, who has become the sole gatekeeper to the president with a direct say in everything from foreign policy to military planning.
“I'm not involved in every job, I'm only coordinating,” Yermak said in an interview at his office in Kyiv on Wednesday. “Yes, I'm very proud that the president asks my opinion, but he asks for my opinion because I get results.”
The concerns about Yermak are surfacing at a perilous moment for Zelenskiy.
Ukraine is struggling to fend off a renewed Russian offensive and bracing for the next winter with its energy infrastructure in tatters, while the US election and the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House pose questions over how long Kyiv will be able to count on the support of its allies. The president himself is also vulnerable to accusations that he lacks legitimacy — his term would have ended on May 20 had martial law not postponed an election.
The idea that Zelenskiy lacks a proper mandate to lead the Ukrainian war effort is a talking point pushed by his enemies in the Kremlin. But like most of the best propaganda, it taps into real questions over how viable it is to suspend the normal democratic process over the long run, especially with signs of frustrations with the government starting to emerge.
“This all is done simply to attack me,” Zelenskiy told Bloomberg Television in a July 3 interview, in which he called Yermak a “powerful manager.”
The president bridled at criticism that Yermak’s ascent has amassed power in too few hands, saying that scrutiny over his chief of staff fits too cozily with a Kremlin-led disinformation campaign. “He does what I tell him to do — and he fulfills the tasks,” he said.
Yermak’s rise has been accompanied by the fall of many others near the top — a parliamentary speaker, a central bank governor and his predecessor as chief of staff among them — often at the hands of the top aide, according to the people familiar with the issue who spoke on condition of anonymity.
A further shakeup is in the offing. The Ukrainian leader confirmed last month that he’s considering a cabinet overhaul, though he declined to comment on widespread speculation that he may swap out Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
“The head of the presidential administration informally has always had a great deal of power in Ukraine,” said Oxana Shevel, an associate professor of political science at Tufts University near Boston, who added that mistrust of Yermak among the Ukrainian public may limit the aide’s options in future.
Rubbing Shoulders
One delegation described a headstrong official with vast influence, often pushing ambitions that outstrip reality, including a demand for a large fleet of F-16 jets. Though the first fighter planes arrived this week, that project has been beleaguered by delays, spare-parts shortages and a language barrier between Ukrainian pilots and trainers that’s significantly scaled back initial targets, Bloomberg reported last month.
Yermak isn’t one to operate in the shadows of power and — at six feet, three inches (190 centimeters) — he towers over Zelenskiy. His social media profile is replete with one-on-one images of Yermak with Pope Francis, French President Emmanuel Macron and others — often with his boss nowhere in sight.
A June 7 post on his Telegram channel showed Yermak shaking hands with US President Joe Biden, while Zelenskiy nearby greeted Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin — a protocol reversal that triggered wry commentary in Kyiv.
The dynamic has prompted a common quip among Ukrainians on the chief of staff: “He’s not number one, but he’s not number two either.”
The power dynamic is a serious matter for NATO allies and international donors — including the European Union and the International Monetary Fund — who have made transparency a benchmark condition for transferring funds.
The personnel moves attributed to Yermak have raised concern that any further tightening among Zelenskiy and his inner circle could sap energy for badly needed reforms — even measures to fight corruption and bolster the rule of law, according to people familiar with assessments in Western capitals.
But Yermak’s mandate is broader than that of any of his predecessors. He’s been central in every key wartime decision: replacing Zelenskiy’s top general, sourcing weapons supplies, negotiating security guarantees, overseeing prisoner swaps and — at the Swiss summit — winning over the Global South to Kyiv’s cause.
Some officials have compared his role to a chief executive officer, with Zelenskiy acting as chairman.
“Of course I read and hear about people talking about my power, but please, tell me, how am I using this power? To work 24 hours, seven days, to take on more obligations and more risks,” Yermak said in the interview. Zelenskiy, he added, “is a person who thinks it's important to listen and to know the different opinions. He always makes the decisions himself.”
The Kubrakov Affair
Allies have been watching closely. The replacement of Ukraine’s popular top general, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, in February raised hackles in NATO capitals over a shakeup just as Kyiv confronted a fresh Russian offensive.
In May, Yermak was instrumental in the removal of Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, an official who once had a direct line to Zelenskiy and was close to the Biden administration, according to people familiar with the ouster.
The presidential office failed to adequately explain the departure among other personnel changes, leaving foreign governments to puzzle over the move, the people said.
Pointedly, the US ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, posted a message on social platform X lauding Kubrakov on May 9, the day the minister was dismissed in a parliamentary vote. Brink thanked Kubrakov “for a great partnership” over the past two years as he worked to support Ukraine’s exports, energy infrastructure and economic growth.
“I look forward to staying close to help Ukraine win the war & win the future,” the ambassador posted.
The flagship diplomatic effort in Switzerland, where Yermak took such a position of prominence didn’t go to plan either. At the end of the two-day summit in Lucerne, a culmination of months of diplomacy, Ukraine failed to win over key nations that attended, including India, Indonesia, South Africa and Saudi Arabia.
Nevertheless, Zelenskiy has tolerated Yermak’s sometimes ruthless methods because he regards him as a problem solver who offers swift, straightforward solutions without burdening the president, according to people familiar with the relationship. Zelenskiy’s trust for Yermak was on par with that of his wife, Olena Zelenska. Yermak even used to join the couple on overseas holidays before the war, they said.
Another official from a NATO government said the chief-of-staff role in Ukraine’s presidential system is always vulnerable to speculation over conspiracies — and that Yermak had a solid reputation for getting things done.
The proximity between Zelenskiy and his top aide is reflected in the close quarters of the presidential compound on Bankova street, once a thriving section of downtown Kyiv that is now a fortified warren of barriers and checkpoints. Zelenskiy and his inner circle have called it home since the war began.
“He's a very strong personality,” Yermak said of his boss. “Everything he has, he made it himself. Nobody helped him. And I can say the same about me.”
Yermak’s resume reflects a privileged Soviet upbringing. His father worked in the Soviet embassy in Afghanistan in the late 1980s. After graduating from the Institute of International Relations at Kyiv’s Taras Shevchenko University with a law degree, Yermak set up a firm specializing in intellectual property rights in the late 1990s.
His work for Ukraine’s biggest television station, Inter, brought him into contact with Zelenskiy, who was an executive producer. He tracked Zelenskiy’s rise from a comic actor and star of the television comedy `Servant of the People’ — in which he depicted a school teacher who becomes president — to high office.
Yermak’s first task after he joined Zelenskiy’s newly elected administration in 2019 was as a liaison to Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s chief lieutenant in Ukraine as the then-president sought to push authorities in Kyiv to investigate Biden in the runup to their 2020 election contest.
The top aide was initially the main channel for Giuliani as he tried push Zelenskiy to announce an investigation. Their exchanges led to Trump’s July 2019 phone call with Zelenskiy, which triggered accusations of soliciting interference from a foreign government and culminated in Trump’s first impeachment.
‘Russia Is Not Motivated’
His next assignment was as Ukraine’s chief negotiator as part of the Minsk agreement that sought to defuse tensions with Russia over its backing of separatists in eastern Ukraine. The encounters with Kremlin officials earned Yermak a reputation for taking uncompromising positions in the diplomatic process, often viewing the world in black and white, according to people familiar with the discussions with Russian officials.
Yermak’s more recent diplomatic foray has been as the architect of Ukraine’s peace blueprint, which aims to bring allies outside the West on board with Kyiv’s demands to end the war before a negotiation process with a more isolated Russia begins.
Despite the setback in Switzerland, Yermak said he’d press ahead in getting the backing of partners — with a follow-up summit where Russia, though it’s dismissed the blueprint, could be present. Speaking to journalists days after the summit, the chief aide conceded that Ukraine is at a disadvantage when it comes to the Kremlin’s resources — but that Kyiv could still win.
“Russia is not motivated,” Yermak told journalists on a conference call. “In the end, victory is on the side of people who are motivated.”
--With assistance from Reinie Booysen, Courtney McBride, Ilya Arkhipov, Irina Reznik, Olesia Safronova, Volodymyr Verbianyi, Andrea Palasciano, Alberto Nardelli, Natalia Ojewska, Torrey Clark, Stuart Livingstone-Wallace and Maxim Edwards.
(Updates with comment from Yermak adviser in third paragraph)
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