(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin and global stocks are diverging as Donald Trump’s electoral push and tightening embrace of crypto bolster the largest digital asset while equities waver on an uncertain outlook for company earnings.
A 30-day correlation coefficient for Bitcoin and MSCI’s index of world shares is falling toward minus 0.20, a rare occurrence as the measure has typically been positive since 2020, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A reading of 1 indicates assets are moving in lockstep, while minus 1 signals an inverse tie.
Bitcoin was little changed on Wednesday in New York at around $65,900, while the S&P 500 fell 2.3% as the US benchmark equity index suffered its worst selloff since December 2022.
Trump used to be a crypto critic but in recent weeks adopted a much friendlier stance alongside the sector’s emergence as an influential player in the 2024 presidential election through big donations to a political action committee. Betting markets place the Republican nominee as the favorite for November’s vote, buoying Bitcoin on hopes of a more supportive US regulatory backdrop.
“Bitcoin is now a proxy for a Trump victory,” said Sean McNulty, director of trading at Arbelos Markets. “For stocks, there are no such clear winners and losers from a Trump trade.”
The original cryptocurrency has climbed about 11% in the past month, compared with a less than 2% climb in global equities. During the period, Trump emerged emboldened from a televised debate with a faltering President Joe Biden and responded defiantly after surviving an assassination attempt.
Vice President Kamala Harris is trying to close the gap to Trump after becoming his likely Democratic rival following Biden’s decision to scrap his reelection bid. There is little clarity yet about her views on the digital-asset industry. Trump is due to speak at a Bitcoin conference on July 27.
Global stocks, meanwhile, are under some pressure after a mixed start to the second-quarter earnings season. Investors are looking for evidence that this year’s rally, driven by artificial intelligence and technology firms, still has legs.
Bitcoin has jumped about 51% in 2024, aided by demand for dedicated US exchange-traded funds and Trump’s agenda. MSCI’s global stock gauge was little changed following a year-to-date advance of approximately 12%.
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