Swift-footed investors turned a nice profit on shares in home lender Equitable Group (EQB.TO) yesterday - and speculation over the fate of alternative mortgage lenders tops our coverage again today on BNN.
After selling off on Friday, Equitable stock soared 30 per cent as the company reassured the market with news that it won $2 billion in committed financing from big banks. CEO Andrew Moor told us that he's not interested buying loans from Home Capital (HCG.TO), whose stock has slid after the Ontario Securities Commission said investors were misled on fraudulent loans. "We believe that we've got really strong internal controls and a strong loan book," Moor said. "The analogy I'd make is that we are a Volvo and [Home Capital] is a Pinto. I have incredible confidence in our loan book loan-by-loan because I know how they were processed and created."
Meanwhile, First National Financial (FN.TO) CEO Stephen Smith - a player at the centre of Canada's non-conventional mortgage sector - told us that he's not worried about "contagion" risk in the industry. He's the biggest shareholder in Equitable.
At 5 p.m. ET, we'll get the take of canny mortgage market observer, Robert McLister, founder of RateSpy.com.
He argues that Home Capital is too small to puncture valuations in the broad real estate market but that "a little froth will come off housing activity."
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CRUDE CRUNCH
At 11:05 a.m. ET, we get an outlook on crude prices from Martin King, director of institutional research at GMP FirstEnergy. He says oil is stuck below US$50 as the market waits for "convincing signs of inventory tightening, especially in the United States."
He sees bullish signs that include healthy global consumption and excellent OPEC compliance with production-cut promises. "Even if U.S. supplies are able to grow faster than we expect, it is still not possible for these supplies to offset other supply cuts and anticipated demand growth."
He has brought down his estimate for average WTI prices this year to US$56.50 from $58 and his 2018 forecast by $1 to $65.
King notes that a "majority of U.S. supply growth [is] not suited for U.S. refineries" because the oil is too light.
The discount on Canadian heavy oil exports has narrowed sharply - it was close to two-year lows last month - partly because of a production shortfall at Syncrude. That's good news for Canadian producers but King notes that Canadian output is still rising and "tightening of differentials should ease back to levels that prevailed for most of the past two years."
DAIRY WARS
At 10:40 a.m. ET, we get a look at Canadian dairy protectionism from an outside perspective when we're joined by Phil Hogan, European commissioner for agriculture.
The politically powerful Canadian dairy sector says new quotas to import European cheese should be handed over to domestic cheese makers. The Globe and Mail says "the permits would allow importers to make quick profits because cheese prices are generally much lower in Europe than Canada."
Hogan says the EU is watching how the cheese-import permits are handed out. He tells segment producers Ian Vandaelle and Adena Ali that it won't do if these industry insiders just hoard them without actually bringing in cheese and dairy products.
Those of us who love European (and Canadian) cheese, by the way, won't be delighted to see that happen either.
BOX OFFICE REPORT
We're talking movies at 12:30 p.m. ET with Ellis Jacob, CEO of Cineplex (CGX.TO), whose stock has been trading at record highs north of $53. Box office revenues, always driven by Hollywood's hits and misses, fell in the latest quarter but average ticket prices rose 3 per cent as the chain continues to woo patrons over to premium priced formats.
AIR TIME
And at 2:40 p.m. ET, we'll be joined by WestJet (WJA.TO) CEO Gregg Saretsky. The company plans to buy 10 Boeing Dreamliners, which could fly to Asia and South America. Canaccord, which rates the stock at Hold, calls the move a "significant increase in overseas capacity" and says "the market will want more detail on this expansion."
Every morning Commodities host Andrew Bell writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnn.ca/subscribe.