(Bloomberg) -- Oil steadied as strength in the US dollar and lingering concerns that OPEC+ won’t delay its production hike undercut signs of a gradual recovery in China’s economy.
West Texas Intermediate crept marginally higher to settle above $68 a barrel as the dollar rose, making commodities priced in the currency less attractive. Brent was little changed below $72 a barrel.
Crude had advanced earlier after Chinese factory activity showed tentative signs of recovery, and investors speculated that Beijing will introduce more forceful measures to bolster growth this month.
Oil later pared gains and eventually flipped negative after the greenback strengthened, driven by a budget dispute that’s threatening to topple France’s government and President-elect Donald Trump’s warning to BRICS nations about creating an alternative to the dollar.
In the Middle East, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrived in the United Arab Emirates on a private visit, raising concerns that continued strife between the nations may imperil OPEC+ negotiations on delaying the group’s production increase, said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, citing a report by AFP.
The prospect of OPEC+ returning supply to the market in January “cannot be altogether dismissed,” Macquarie Group strategists said in a note Monday, adding that they would be “surprised, but not shocked” if the cartel revived output to angle for market share.
OPEC+ pushed back its meeting on supply by four days. Traders still widely expect the group to delay a slight production increase for a third time.
“We expect the plan to introduce more oil to the market to be postponed by another month or, more likely, three months,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.
Oil has been trading in a range of a little more than $6 since mid-October, buffeted by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Russia, the effect of Trump’s potential policies and the outlook in China.
The Syrian city of Aleppo was captured by a breakaway faction of al-Qaeda over the weekend, and the rebel forces are now pushing south. It’s the latest flashpoint in a region that has been beset by conflict this year, although a truce between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah appeared to be holding.
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--With assistance from Alex Longley.
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