(Bloomberg) -- South African stocks need to beat rising earnings expectations to prolong their record-setting rally into 2025. Not all investors are convinced they can.
The main index is up over 7% in dollar terms since a business-friendly unity government was installed in early July, easily outpacing the 0.8% drop for emerging-market peers. There’s been other good news too: eight months without any disruptive rolling power blackouts, while inflation has slipped below the central bank’s target range, supporting the case for easing interest rates.
But, for the market to build on a year when it has set 14 record highs, investors are looking to companies to deliver on projections for increased profits. Analyst estimates of year-ahead earnings for FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index members have climbed 10% in 2024, compared with about 6% for peers in MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market benchmark.
“If these share prices are to be maintained, the next leg that has to come is earnings growth and I think we’re worried about the earnings growth disappointing,” said Jithen Pillay, a Cape Town-based portfolio manager at Allan Gray. “We haven’t as yet seen a structural move in those factors that would enable those companies to grow their earnings above inflation.”
Shares in domestically focused industrial companies have re-rated from deeply discounted levels since the election, said Nick Balkin, Foord Asset Management’s chief investment officer for South Africa.
“Valuations are not as low, so now it will be about earnings growth and the economic growth for South Africa picking up,” Balkin said.
Much focus is on the banking sector. It could be poised to show the benefits of stable electricity supplies, efforts to fix the country’s transport networks, falling interest rates and pension rule reforms that give South Africans access to some of their savings.
“After a very protracted period of a really weak growth backdrop for South Africa, we could be at a turning point there,” said Meryl Pick, a portfolio manager at Old Mutual Investment Group.
FirstRand Ltd., the largest bank by market value, trades at 10 times estimated earnings, below its average for the past decade. Overall, Johannesburg stocks trade at 10 times forward earnings, compared with 20 times for India’s Nifty 50 Index and 12.5 times for Indonesian stocks.
The latest piece of good news for South African equities came Nov. 15, when S&P Global Ratings lifted the outlook on the country’s debt rating to positive from stable. That increases the chances of the country eventually regaining an investment grade.
“It’ll be a long road, but that can potentially further unlock the value in banking shares without them even delivering further earnings growth — purely from a re-rating perspective,” Pick said.
--With assistance from Christian Dass.
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