(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he foresees the central bank continuing to lower rates toward a stance that neither restricts nor promotes economic activity.
“Barring some convincing evidence of overheating, I don’t see the case for not continuing to have the fed funds rate decline,” Goolsbee said Monday in an appearance on Fox Business, referring to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.
“How fast that happens will be determined by the outlook and conditions,” Goolsbee added. “But the through line to me is pretty clear that we’re on a path, and that path is going to lead to lower rates, closer to what you might call neutral.”
He said his forecast of the neutral rate was close to officials’ median estimate, which was 2.9% in the September projections.
The Fed on Tuesday will release the minutes of the Nov. 6-7 meeting of the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee. Policymakers at that gathering reduced the central bank’s benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point, following a half-point reduction in September.
Several officials have urged a cautious approach to future rate cuts, given continued economic resilience and firm inflation data of late. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the economy was not sending signals that officials need to be in a hurry to reduce rates.
Policymakers will have several more data points to digest ahead of their December meeting, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and an employment report. Goolsbee said Monday it was important not to “over conclude anything” from one month’s data.
“I think the broad through line has been the newer months of inflation coming in oftentimes below what was expected, but not that far above the 2% target,” he said, referring to the Fed’s target for price growth.
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