(Bloomberg) -- B&M European Value Retail SA shares fell for a fourth straight day, making the stock the worst performer in the FTSE 100 Index this year amid fading hopes that discount stores can grab market share during the economic downturn.
The UK-listed company has shed 15% of its market value — almost £600 million ($760 million) — in the days that followed it reporting a drop in like-for-like sales on Nov. 14. The shares are now down 38% in 2024 and sit at a two-year low.
Analysts have cut their earnings forecasts since the results. Morgan Stanley says B&M’s underperformance versus traditional supermarket Tesco Plc is akin to what’s happening in the US, where sales at discounters Dollar General Corp. and Dollar Tree Inc. are trailing those of Walmart Inc.
Given the middle class has been relatively less affected by this economic downturn than lower-income groups, discounters are failing to add the market share they had been predicted to, Morgan Stanley’s Izabel Dobreva said in a Tuesday note.
“It is possible that the incremental ‘trade down’ from middle/higher-income consumers has been insufficient to offset the lower spend of less affluent consumers,” said Dobreva and colleagues. “In a nutshell - the backdrop is not ‘bad enough’ for it to be good.”
The quality and price of private-label products offered by traditional supermarkets has also improved, hindering discounters’ growth, they added, keeping an underweight rating on B&M.
B&M shares fell 3.0% to 335.50 pence as of 3 p.m. in London.
According to B&M’s head of investor relations, Dave McCarthy, discount retailing “continues to go from strength to strength” in the UK and globally, largely independent of economic conditions.
Budget grocers Aldi and Lidl are “complementary to B&M’s branded product ranges, and together we continue to gain volume market share,” McCarthy said in emailed comments. The experience of mainstream supermarkets is “more mixed,” he added.
To be sure, Morgan Stanley’s recommendation to sell B&M stock goes against that of the vast majority of banks tracked by Bloomberg, who have buy ratings.
B&M’s price-earnings ratio is approaching a record low, and the average price target from analysts implies 60% upside for the stock, second only to Prudential Plc in the FTSE 100.
Read: Prudential’s China-Fueled Slump Leaves Stock Ripe for a Rebound
(Updates with B&M comments in eighth and ninth paragraphs)
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