(Bloomberg) -- Millions of undocumented migrants facing prospects of mass deportation under US President-Elect Donald Trump are unlikely to find refuge in the country’s northern neighbor this time around.
During Trump’s first White House term, his 2017 travel ban on Muslim-majority countries, suspension of refugee intakes and uncertainty around the protected status of Haitians sent the number of migrants crossing into Canada soaring. And Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared to greet them with open arms, posting on social media: “To those fleeing persecution, terror and war, Canadians will welcome you.”
But since then, post-pandemic influxes of asylum seekers that overwhelmed shelter systems across Canada led to the closing of a loophole that allowed refugee claims at irregular entry points such as a rural road north of Plattsburgh, New York. Meanwhile, rapid surges of foreign students and workers have soured Canadian support for mass immigration, forcing Trudeau to drastically restrict inflows and halt the country’s population growth.
Canada’s policy turnaround is a departure from its previous embrace of newcomers and brings its stance on curbing migration closer to that of the US and many of its peer European countries. It also suggests a repeat of large-scale irregular crossings seen in recent years is now doubtful, even though the US and Canada share the world’s longest undefended border.
“This sense of panic, the sense that they’re better off in Canada and that they go through whatever they have to go through to cross the border — it’s less likely than it was before because there are just so many obstacles that are now in the way,” said Pia Zambelli, chairwoman of the refugee committee at the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association.
In closing the loophole last year, the US and Canada have effectively sealed their borders, substantially cutting down irregular crossings. Under the current rules, asylum seekers entering Canada from the US risk being turned back at the border, which raises their probability of being detained and deported from the US if they’re undocumented.
Some refugees have instead turned to smugglers to help them cross the border and go into hiding for 14 days, a period after which they could file asylum claims in Canada. But the journey can be perilous, involves crossing bodies of water or forests and sometimes in cold and harsh weather. Eight migrants drowned in the St. Lawrence River trying to reach the US last year and an Indian family of four froze to death in Manitoba in 2022, examples of how dangerous the voyage can be.
Advocates for refugee rights have been pushing for Canada to rescind the so-called Safe Third Country Agreement with the US to allow migrants to seek asylum in Canada without the risk of being denied entry.
“This agreement is built on the premise that the US is a safe place to return asylum seekers to and that their actions won’t place Canada in breach of its international legal obligation,” said Julia Sande, a lawyer for Amnesty International Canada. “Canada also has a duty to monitor the situation. We would say that as of today, that’s not the case.”
Trump’s threat to deport undocumented migrants has alarmed many economists and businesses. The impact would likely land hardest in industries like construction, leisure and hospitality – and states including Texas, Florida and California – where migrants make up the biggest share of the labor force.
Many doubt that deportations of migrants are feasible on the scale Trump has proposed. He’s floated using the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement or even the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 — last used to justify World War II-era internment of non-citizens — to carry out the plan, which would likely face court challenges.
Still, some Canadian officials have raised concern in recent days over the possibility of an increase in refugees after Trump won his second presidential term. Politicians from Quebec, which previously saw the influx from the Roxham Road crossing north of New York, have been most vocal.
“The kind of panic and fearmongering that we’re seeing from politicians — there’s no need to raise that kind of alarm,” said Gauri Sreenivasan, co-executive director at the Canadian Council for Refugees. “If we do see an increase, which would not surprise us, it’s not going to come overnight.”
Immigration Minister Marc Miller said Wednesday that Trudeau’s government will ensure that Canada has a “controlled flow” of migrants into the country. “Our interests are aligned with the US in making sure that we have a northern border that is secure.”
Canada’s national police force has “worked through various scenarios in the event of a sudden increase in irregular migration between official ports of entry at the Canada-US border,” the Royal Canadian Mounted Police said in an email statement. The surges in recent years “provided us with the tools and insight necessary to address similar types of occurrences.”
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