(Bloomberg) -- A payment system that removes the dollar from cross-border African transactions could save the continent up to $5 billion in processing costs, says the head of business and commercial banking for the Africa and offshore regions at the continent’s biggest bank.
Having to clear transactions through US or European banks burdens African businesses with delays and expenses, said Tunde Macaulay of Standard Bank Group Ltd. A unified payment system under the new African Continental Free Trade Area pact looks set to improve this, according to the banker who has worked across the continent for 25 years.
The so-called Pan-African Payments and Settlements System, launched in 2022, also has the potential to bring about $50 billion of informal trade into the official economy, Macaulay said.
“We will have visibility of it if the payment system is implemented the way it’s supposed to be,” he said. “That’s the intention — to remove this friction across payments.”
More than 80% of cross-border payments from African banks are still routed offshore for clearing, typically through Europe or the US, a 2022 report from the Africa Export-Import Bank found. With only 16% of Africa’s trade happening within the continent — compared with more than 60% in the European Union — the stakes are high.
The system could place Africa squarely in the crosshairs of newly elected US President Donald Trump, who has pledged to penalize countries moving away from the dollar. Trump and his economic advisers have warned they would pursue measures against both allies and adversaries who actively seek to trade in alternative currencies, with potential penalties including export controls, tariffs, and currency manipulation charges.
About 47 countries have ratified the AfCFTA, which aims to fully integrate the region into a single market. The area has a potential market of 1.3 billion people with a combined gross domestic product of $3.4 trillion, and could be the world’s biggest free-trade zone by area when the treaty becomes fully operational by 2030.
An expanded pilot that went into force this year includes a pan-African payments and settlement system using local currencies to overcome the continent’s foreign-exchange shortages and convertibility limitations. The continent has 42 monetary units.
Macaulay suggested a phased approach to integration, focusing first on reducing barriers to trade through cutting taxes and eliminating unnecessary non-tariff barriers such as licenses and quotas. He also called for more support for small- and medium-sized businesses.
Already, 115 commercial banks, 13 central banks, and 10 switching-service providers have joined the system, but scaling it will require a coordinated “network effect” — and it’s far from guaranteed. Macaulay said.
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AfCFTA’s $1 billion Adjustment Fund will also be crucial in this effort, providing support to governments and businesses facing revenue losses from tariff cuts, he said. The African Union aims to grow this fund to $10 billion by 2033, allowing countries to participate in the free-trade zone without risking economic strain.
The AfCFTA “is a battle Africa must win for its own prosperity,” Macaulay said. “There can be no turning back.”
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(Updates with Trump plans in sixth paragraph. Earlier version corrected title of Tunde Macaulay in first paragraph.)
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