(Bloomberg) -- A surge in third-quarter revenue may not be enough to lift the investor reluctance that seems to surround Coinbase Global Inc. given that many retail traders appear to remain wary of the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.
The largest US crypto exchange is forecast by analysts to see revenue double for a second consecutive quarter and a return to profitability when it releases results after the close of trading.
While shares of the San Fransisco-based firm have risen around 27% so far this year, they’re lagging the roughly 70% gain registered during the same period by crypto market bellwether Bitcoin. The stock is also around 40% below the all-time high it reached during the crypto bull market of late 2021.
One reason for this lack of enthusiasm for the stock appears to be the drop in interest from individual investors in trading digital assets. While this bread-and-butter customer of Coinbase’s waded back into trading at the beginning of the year, many of them have left since, with Bitcoin trading sideways for months after hitting an all-time high in March. Searches for the word “Bitcoin” are the lowest they’ve been in at least a year, according to Google Trends data.
“Historically they come back later in the cycle,” said John Todaro, an analyst at Needham & Co. Inc., who has a “buy” rating on Coinbase. “We are looking for a strong Q4 as well, just the data isn’t supporting that right now.”
Trading volumes have trended down in September from August, though they picked up in October as Bitcoin makes a run toward a fresh all-time high, according to data compiled by The Block.
Many other metrics reflecting retail engagement have been down. Monthly active users of Coinbase’s mobile apps were down 6% in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. The same measure for Binance, the world’s biggest crypto exchange, increased 20%. While Binance saw a 94% jump in year-over-year quarterly mobile app downloads, Coinbase’s saw a more modest 47% increase, Sensor Tower said. Coinbase mobile apps’ weekly average time spent per user increased 28% year over year — the most of its peers — while the same measure for Binance declined 7%, according to Sensor Tower, which uses panels to gauge activity.
“It’s kind of mixed in a way,” said Abraham Yousef, senior insights analyst at Sensor Tower. “This could be a short-term threat to them, not as many people on the platform placing trades.”
Coinbase’s spot market share in the third quarter declined sequentially to 4.18% from 4.51%, as competitors like Crypto.com and Bybit gained ground, partly because they list more tokens, according to researcher CCData. Its spot share in September was the lowest since June 2022, the researcher found. Coinbase’s derivatives share did increase to 1.98% from 1.57% in the prior quarter, “however, the drop in its spot market share remains concerning while its competitors gain ground,” said Jacob Joseph, an analyst at CCData.
That said, Coinbase is succeeding in diversifying revenue: The company receives a substantial portion of its sales from institutional trading and non-trading services. In the second quarter, about half of its revenue came from non-transaction-related sources, according to a shareholder letter.
Still, “it won’t be a good quarter for Coinbase,” said Owen Lau, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., who has an “outperform” rating on the shares. “The question is, can they beat the lower bar?”
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect third-quarter revenue of $1.25 billion and $118 million in net income. Coinbase lost $2.3 million in the third quarter of 2023. That has left some analysts optimistic.
“I think new money is coming into this space, and they are waiting for the right opportunity to deploy,” Lau said. “There’s still some election overhang. But my expectation is once we pass through the election, there should be more clarity about the economy and the market, and expect trading volume to start to go up, and that should do well for Coinbase.”
The outcome of the US presidential election could have huge consequences for the company, which is battling the Securities and Exchange Commission in court and lobbying for the country’s laws to be made to be more favorable to crypto companies.
“The next big catalyst for Coinbase is not their earnings, it’s the election,” said Tushar Jain, managing partner at Multicoin Capital. “With regards to earnings, the key thing I am looking at is the continued diversification of their revenue lines.”
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