(Bloomberg) -- The outlook is mixed for major African currencies going into the next year, with South Africa’s rand set to outperform and Nigeria’s naira facing more pain before things get better, according to Ebury Partners Ltd.
Four of the seven African currencies monitored by Ebury are seen holding their ground or gaining in 2025, with the other three extending losses, the London-based firm said in a report. The analysis is based on the economic fundamentals of each country and the outlook for commodity prices.
“The wide-ranging idiosyncrasies inherent in Africa ensure that we hold a rather diverse view on the currencies,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, in the report. “The strength of macroeconomic fundamentals are disproportionately important for the region’s currencies. Commodity prices are also an important determinant.”
Ebury has penciled in losses for the Angolan kwanza, Ghanaian cedi and Nigerian naira in 2025. The rand is seen extending this year’s rally, while the Kenyan shilling, Ugandan shilling and Zambian kwacha “are well placed to hold their own,” Ryan said.
Ebury’s views:
- Angola’s kwanza could weaken to 1,000 per dollar by end-2025, implying a decline of about 8%, according to Bloomberg calculations.
- Ghana’s cedi will probably fall to 19 per dollar, a decline of about 16%.
- Nigeria’s naira is seen weakening about 2.4% to 1,700 per dollar.
- South Africa’s rand is forecast to gain 5% to 16.75 per dollar.
- Kenya’s shilling and Zambia’s kwacha are seen trading sideways.
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