(Bloomberg) -- During what’s been a tough year for European airline stocks, one UK carrier is bucking the gloom.
Jet2 Plc shares have risen 15% this year, with the stock extending gains for a sixth straight session on Tuesday. Meanwhile, leisure carrier rivals Ryanair Holdings Plc and TUI AG are both in negative territory for 2024, while EasyJet Plc is up just 2.5%. The reason may partly lie in Jet2’s strength as a provider of cheap package holidays at a time when many consumers are tightening their purse strings.
Package holidays have received a boost since the pandemic as younger travelers became tempted by the prospect of cheaper and hassle-free holidays. The collapse of Thomas Cook Group Plc in 2019, once among the industry leaders, also helped Jet2 to gain market share in the UK, according to Ed Vyvyan, an analyst at Redburn Atlantic.
Jet2 has “a strong balance sheet and net cash position, a healthy order book out to the start of the next decade at advantageous prices and a well-seasoned management team,” said Davy analyst Stephen Furlong.
More than three-quarters of Jet2’s revenue in the six months ended March came from package holidays, while flight-only tickets made up just 11%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile EasyJet generated about 13% of its revenue during the same period from its holidays business and Ryanair doesn’t offer packages that include accommodation with their flights.
The market dominance looks set to continue, with analysts noting that Jet2 has the biggest share of licenses that protect travelers and their money if the travel operator they booked with were to fail.
Competitors are trying to catch up. Davy’s Furlong doesn’t see EasyJet as a significant threat, given it is mainly targeting existing customers, rather than encroaching on Jet2’s client base. Meanwhile, Jefferies analyst Jaina Mistry said in a note last month that Jet2 has a clearer growth trajectory compared to TUI, its main direct rival.
Analysts Bullish
However, Jet2 does have a potential weak spot: its reliance on UK customers. This will be tested by the upcoming UK government’s budget, which is expected to focus on tax hikes and spending cuts that might lead to thriftier consumers going forward.
“Any adverse impact on UK household disposable income is a risk,” said Gerald Khoo, an analyst at Panmure Liberum. “Longer term, its focus on the UK could make it harder to continue to grow than peers with Pan-European base networks.”
For now, analysts tracked by Bloomberg are overwhelmingly positive on Jet2, with the stock garnering 14 buy-equivalent recommendations and no holds or sells. Meanwhile, the 12-month average price target suggests the shares could rise more than 30% from current levels.
Jet2’s market capitalization has increased from less than £100 million ($131 million) at the start of 2010 to £3.1 billion today, making it the biggest company on AIM, the London Stock Exchange’s junior market for growth companies.
The growth has prompted some market participants to question whether the company will move its listing to the LSE’s main market, which would pave the way for potential inclusion in the mid-cap FTSE 250 Index. Jet2 declined to comment on its stock listing.
“Moving to the main market would be a natural next step for a business of Jet2’s size, although we haven’t encountered investors who have been put off investing in Jet2 by the AIM listing,” said Ruairi Cullinane, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
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