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Expedia posts earnings beat while warning of softening demand

The Expedia app on a smartphone arranged in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York, US, on Monday, July 31, 2023. Expedia Group Inc. is scheduled to release earnings figures on August 3. (Tiffany Hagler-Geard/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Expedia Group Inc. posted better-than-expected second-quarter results while warning of “softening” travel demand in the current quarter, leading it to adjust its expectations for the rest of the year.

Gross bookings across Expedia’s platforms, which include flight reservations, hotel stays, car rentals activities and vacation rentals, increased 6 per cent to US$28.8 billion in the three months ended June 30, the company said Thursday in a statement. Wall Street was expecting $28.6 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In particular, the company signaled the vacation rental business returned to modest growth in the second quarter after decelerating the past few periods, which had weighed on Expedia’s results.

Room nights booked — a key metric in the travel industry — jumped 10 per cent to 98.9 million, exceeding estimates for 96.1 million nights. Second-quarter revenue increased 6 per cent to $3.56 billion, ahead of analysts’ average estimate of $3.53 billion.

The shares initially fell 3 per cent in extended trading before rallying and gaining more than 6 per cent while executives spoke about the results and outlook on a conference call. The stock earlier closed at $117.97 in New York and has dropped 22 per cent this year.

The warning is the latest evidence of slowing travel demand, which has been cited by a chorus of executives from companies including Airbnb Inc. and Booking Holdings Inc. Investors have been watching closely for signs of revived growth, especially because travel spending is sometimes seen as a bellwether for consumer confidence more broadly. Airbnb shares plunged the most in two years after the company projected its slowest growth since 2020, noting that more US travelers seemed hesitant to book trips months in advance.

As a result of that tapering demand, Expedia is cutting its full-year gross bookings growth forecast to the low end of its previous guidance range to 4 per cent, Chief Financial Officer Julie Whalen said on a call with investors, while forecasting 6 per cent growth in annual revenue. She also expects third-quarter gross bookings and revenue to increase in the range of 3 per cent to 5 per cent compared with a year ago.

“In July, we have seen a more challenging macro environment and a softening in travel demand. We are therefore adjusting our expectations for the rest of the year,” Chief Executive Officer Ariane Gorin said in the statement.

This is the second time the company has cut its full-year guidance this year on softer-than-expected demand. It had reduced guidance in May to mid- to high single-digit growth.

Booking, which does more business in Europe than some of its peers, also gave disappointing guidance, citing mild moderation in the region. It also observed that US consumers were trading down for lower-star hotels or shorter trips, while cheaper flight prices also weighed on the company’s results.

Seattle-based Expedia may serve as a health indicator for the broader US travel market, which has seen a leveling-off in growth after an initial post-pandemic travel boom. The company has more domestic exposure than its peers, making it more sensitive to shifting travel patterns of Americans considering urban or international trips over more domestic coastal or resort locations, where most of the vacation rentals from its Vrbo business are located.

The company’s second-quarter revenue gains were almost entirely driven by 22 per cent growth in Expedia’s enterprise business-to-business segment, which makes up nearly 30 per cent of total revenue. Meanwhile, consumer business revenue gained only 0.7 per cent. Gorin said on the earnings call that she expects the normalization of gains by the B2B business going forward after four straight quarters of more than 20 per cent growth.

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