(Bloomberg) -- National intrigue trailed Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as he arrived at a rally in Philadelphia, the most liberal corner of the country’s most important swing state.
Speaking to a heavily Democratic union crowd last week, Shapiro, 51, showed the energy that has helped land him on the short list to be Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate as he slammed Donald Trump for trying to restrict collective bargaining rights.
“This is who this man is: screwing over the little guy for the corporate interests,” Shapiro said to cheers. “We don’t need to give him the keys to the White House so that he can continue to rip away our freedoms.”
Hours later and halfway across the state, Shapiro showcased his political agility in rural Blair County, where Trump won 71% of the vote in 2020.
At a more subdued event at an independently owned pharmacy, he hailed a bipartisan law taking aim at pharmacy benefit managers, which had passed the country’s only politically divided state legislature.
“We can come together and we can get stuff done,” Shapiro said.
The two events demonstrated the unusually popular governor’s greatest asset.
He has consistently won in a place that mirrors many of the defining features of American politics, reaching from the East Coast Acela corridor to the Rust Belt, with a tight balance of big Democratic cities, moderate suburbs, Appalachia, solid Republican farmland and old industrial towns.
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are the most of any presidential battleground, making it a must-win and a potential bellwether for politically similar Michigan and Wisconsin. Win all three, and Harris will likely be the next president. Lose Pennsylvania, and her path becomes extremely difficult.
Bringing the Votes
Harris starts from behind. Trump leads Pennsylvania in a head-to-head match up, 50% to 46%, according to the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult swing state poll. Shapiro, in his second year as governor, has a 52% favorability rating in the state against 36% unfavorable, according to the same poll. Some other recent surveys have put his approval north of 60%.
Ed Rendell, the former Pennsylvania governor and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, estimated that having Shapiro on the ticket could mean as many as 50,000 additional votes for Harris in Pennsylvania — a significant boost given that Joe Biden won the commonwealth in 2020 by 80,555 votes and Trump carried it in 2016 by 44,292 votes.
Running for attorney general in both those years, Shapiro racked up more votes in Pennsylvania than Hillary Clinton or Biden.
“If you want to win Pennsylvania, there is no other candidate,” better positioned, Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker said of Shapiro at the union rally.
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Israel Divide
But the same moderate style that has helped Shapiro build broad appeal carries risk with the left.
An observant Jew who would make history if he’s elected vice president, Shapiro has been an outspoken supporter of Israel and has criticized some protests against the country’s conduct in Gaza.
His stance, which also includes sharp criticisms of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, mirrors many mainstream Democrats but puts him at odds with progressives and some younger voters.
Shapiro blasted former University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill’s handling of pro-Palestinian protests on the campus and later called for disbanding the school’s protest encampment.
When a pro-Palestinian march in Philadelphia chanted about “genocide” outside a falafel shop owned by an Israeli-American, Shapiro called it “a blatant act of antisemitism.”
A headline in the liberal New Republic recently called him the one pick “who could ruin Democratic unity,” and a group of activists recently launched a website called “No Genocide Josh.”
Shapiro told reporters last week he has tried “to speak with moral clarity, to make sure all Pennsylvanians feel safe” and to “speak out against antisemitism, Islamophobia and all forms of hate.”
He praised Harris’ recent comments on Israel, and called for a two-state solution, but said Hamas cannot remain in power, and that Netanyahu “has been a dangerous and destructive force.”
Liberal Critics
Critics on the left have also argued that in the name of compromise and ambition Shapiro has betrayed progressive values, most notably when he embraced a plan to boost school vouchers.
Shapiro was forced to line-item veto his own voucher deal amid opposition from Democrats and the teachers’ union. He ultimately added $1.1 billion for public schools to the state’s latest budget.
And he’s drawn scrutiny for his handling of a sexual harassment accusation against a top aide. His administration settled the accusation for $295,000 and the aide resigned, months after the initial claim.
Pennsylvania’s Democratic nominee for treasurer, Erin McClelland, slammed Shapiro in a recent post on X, suggesting he swept sexual harassment “under the rug.”
She added that she wants a nominee who “won’t undermine the President to maneuver his own election,” saying out loud what many only whisper: that Shapiro, chasing a dream to become president, is always angling for his next step up.
Pragmatic Leader
The same strategic, calculating approach that sometimes chafes contemporaries, though, has also helped Shapiro build political support and deliver policy victories.
After a fire took down parts of the heavily traveled I-95 interstate in Philadelphia, Shapiro worked with local labor unions to install a temporary bridge that got traffic moving again in 12 days, drawing national acclaim months into his tenure as governor.
It symbolized his approach: efficient, meticulous, and tangible in a way people of all political persuasions could appreciate.
“He’s emblematic of places like Pennsylvania, purple places like other battleground states,” said Representative Chrissy Houlahan, a Pennsylvania Democrat. “He is pragmatic.”
Still, Republicans argue his past successes against underfunded and weak candidates mean he hasn’t truly been tested and that Shapiro would face far greater scrutiny on the national stage.
“He’s never really taken a punch,” said Peter Towey, a Republican strategist in Pennsylvania.
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