One portfolio manager predicts that markets will decline in the run-up to the U.S. presidential elections.
Ryan Lewenza, portfolio manager at Turner Investments, Raymond James, says market volatility is predictable.
“From an economic market perspective, it really doesn’t (matter) whether it’s a Democrat or Republican,” he said, during an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Monday. “But what we do see is that we often see some volatility as we approach the election.”
Lewenza assessed market data from the last eight elections, going back to 2000, he explained. “In every single case, the S&P 500 Index had a decline. Usually, it starts right around August, the late summer, fall and then you have a dip.”
On average, he said, markets “fall about six per cent.”
“It was almost uncanny how it bottomed right around the election,” he said, adding that it also “makes perfect sense.”
“Markets hate uncertainty,” he said. “And boy do we have a lot of uncertainty. Long story short, I see the potential for a little dip.”
To watch the rest of Lewenza’s interview with BNN Bloomberg, click the video above.