(Bloomberg) -- If your fear of flying has ramped up in recent months or you’re more hesitant than usual to take to the friendly skies, you’re not alone.
More than half of US travelers say recent news of aircraft and airline incidents has affected the way they book travel, according to a June 2024 survey from analytics company Quantum Metric. Almost a quarter plan to limit airline travel for the rest of the year, and 20% are doing more research into aircraft models they might be flying. Quantum Metric surveyed 1,000 US travelers age 18-54.
It’s no surprise that consumer confidence in aviation has taken a hit. Since January, we’ve seen Japan Airlines suffer a runway collision, an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 lose a door plug midflight, fatal turbulence on a Singapore Airlines flight, United Airlines planes losing wheels at takeoff and a near-collision on the runway at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport—to name a few.
Injuries and fatalities have been few overall, but the serious mishaps seem to be continuing.
Thankfully, processes for accountability are well underway. As a result of the lost door plug incident, the US Department of Justice opened a probe into Boeing Co.; the company agreed to plead guilty to fraud this month.The plea agreement, which is pending court approval, requires Boeing to install a corporate monitor and spend $455 million to boost its compliance and safety programs over the next three years. The Federal Aviation Administration has also increased its oversight of United Airlines Holdings Inc.; in turn, the airline is beefing up its training programs for technicians and other staffers. Further investigations of the other incidents are in progress.
While we all wait for the dust to settle, we asked four industry experts to weigh in on the state of aviation and how you can stay safe. Here’s what they want you to know.
Buckle Up, and Trust the Pilot
Captain John Cox, retired US Airways pilot
“In 2023 we flew 35 million jet commercial flights around the world without a single fatality or even a single accident,” says Cox, a former pilot and chief executive officer at Safety Operating Systems LLC, which provides consulting services for the airline industry as well as other sectors. “Worldwide, commercial aviation flies the population of the planet—almost 8 billion people—about every 25 months.”
The statistical rarity of these incidents is what makes them newsworthy, he argues.
Having flown Boeing jets in all kinds of challenging conditions since learning to fly in 1970, Cox has tackled engine malfunctions, blizzard landings, hydraulic problems and flight control issues. In every case he landed his passengers safely back on the ground, often without them knowing anything was amiss. In other words: Trust your pilots. “You don’t try to tell a surgeon how to do surgery, do you?” he reasons.
Turbulence is making the job harder today, Cox says, partially due to climate change. “As the planet warms up, you have more hot air rising,” he says. This change in temperature leads to something called “clear air turbulence,” which occurs when a jet stream collides with the plane in perfectly clear air and blue skies. “Forecasts are getting better at predicting it,” he says.
The smartest workaround is both obvious and overlooked: Wear your seatbelt, even when sleeping. Doing so will prevent you from hitting the ceiling in the event of sudden impact.
But you shouldn’t stop flying, Cox says. “Get out, go see your relatives, experience other parts of the world—it’s important. When you interact with other cultures, you become more tolerant of them, and tolerance is something right now we can use a little bit more of.”
Don’t Worry About Plane Models
Hassan Shahidi, CEO, Flight Safety Foundation
“When one tire falls off, it’s a one-off, but when two tires fall off, it’s a concern,” Shahidi says, adding that travelers are right to feel anxious. “What’s important is that it doesn’t become a trend.”
Unfortunately we’re in a trend moment now, says Shahidi, whose organization is currently working globally with airlines, regulatory bodies and others in the industry to focus on aviation safety. And for those in charge, this means it’s time to find the responsible cracks in the foundations. This effort has been underway for several months, and Shahidi says we should see improvements roll out over the course of the next year.
In the interim, he says, it’s not worth picking your flights based on safe-seeming aircraft. Most of the planes that are flying today have been in service for years without issues, Shahidi says. The FAA is also approving the Boeing 737 Max one at a time now and has boots on the ground.
“Forty percent of the US traveling public actually fly on non-Boeing and non-Airbus aircraft. They are on the small regional Embraer jets [used] if you go anywhere on a short distance,” Shahidi says.
Plus, he says, passengers have less control than they might think when it comes to selecting aircraft. “There’s not really much you can do to try to be selective of aircraft, Shahidi says, pointing out that aircraft can be reallocated depending on demand. The exception, he says, is “if you fly private—then you can have your choice.”
Know the Context
John Goglia, former member of the National Transportation Safety Board
“Maintenance issues haven’t gone up any significant or noticeable amount, but awareness of these issues is on the rise,” says Goglia, an experienced former NTSB investigator and co-host of the Flight Safety Detectives podcast, which looks at matters affecting commercial aviation.
Manufacturing challenges, such as the Alaska Airlines door plug incident, don’t phase him as new concerns either. Having worked on numerous airplanes that were freshly delivered from the plant—from both Boeing and Douglas Aircraft Co.—Goglia says brand-new planes have always needed some debugging before settling into their normal life cycle. “Fixing and tweaking all the little problems that they had when they’d leave the factory was always a pain,” he says, adding that it’s the job of entire teams to ensure they catch and resolve these mostly minor issues before a single passenger boards.
What concerns Goglia, instead, is pilot training, particularly in Asia, he says, where there aren’t enough veteran pilots to staff the fast-growing route networks. “There’sa lot of rookie pilots out there, but we don’t have a lot of qualified pilots,” he says, predicting that this lack of experience will be a growing source of stress for the industry in the next few years.
He also advocates for seat belt use, as well as holding on tight to your gadgets. “Computers, cellphones, all kinds of stuff goes flying [in turbulence], and hopefully it doesn’t hit anybody in the head,” Goglia says. “Just pay attention.”
You Have a Role to Play in Safety, Too
Kathryn Creedy, veteran aviation journalist
“Mishaps are not infrequent—I’ve heard about them my entire career—but they’re indicative of something,” says Creedy, a reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting on the aviation industry for major news organizations and outlets, including the LA Times, the BBC and Business Travel Executive. Like Shahidi, she says that figuring out what such mishaps indicate is critical to containing the crisis.
There are many factors to blame for the aviation industry’s recent woes, including workforce shortages, poor planning for pilot retirements, insufficient FAA funding and Boeing’s “cavalier attitude toward safety,” Creedy says. These challenges can leave many people feeling powerless in the face of mounting obstacles.
One thing that’s reassuring for passengers, she says, is knowing that the entire industry’s collective brainpower is working to resolve those issues quickly. Another is that consumers themselves can make a meaningful impact by holdingthe FAA accountable.
“Tell your congressional reps that you want more appropriations for aviation safety, especially because you’re paying for it,” Creedy says, noting that airfare taxes are supposed to cover this funding. “In Congress the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and there is nothing squeakier than a ton of constituents complaining about aviation safety.”
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