(Bloomberg) -- Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. are set to show how quickly they’ve recovered from a period of intense regulatory scrutiny in China. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts reckon that Chinese tech firms’ earnings this week could make or break Hong Kong’s equity rally. 

As the tech industry crackdown faded, the Chinese government has changed course and said it will support their overseas listings and funding needs. Tencent, Alibaba and JD.com Inc. are also stepping up share buybacks, urged by regulators to boost shareholder returns. 

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.’s first quarter was challenging, indicated by a revenue slump of 9.6% as iPhone sales sagged, especially in China. The firm saw strong April sales, raising expectations for improving iPhone sales.

In Japan, Rakuten Group Inc.’s mobile business remains a drag. It also faces a lukewarm shareholder reception and regulatory hurdles for plans to reorganize its fintech business. Sony Group Corp. should meet its fiscal-year operating profit goal, helped by a weak yen.

In Southeast Asia, Lunar New Year travel and international passenger volumes would have helped Airports of Thailand Pcl’s earnings. While Singapore Airlines Ltd. is also benefiting from travel demand, pressure on passenger yields, competition and higher costs mean profit probably fell.

Highlights to look out for: 

Monday: SoftBank Group (9984 JP) may post a third straight annual loss, according to consensus, though it probably shrank by more than two-thirds from the prior year as its Vision Funds returned to profit. Its semiconductor design unit Arm Holdings Plc is reported to plan launching an AI chip next year, and any mention of the new product will be closely watched.

Tuesday: Alibaba (BABA US) and Tencent (700 HK) both saw single-digit revenue growth last quarter, estimates show. Gross merchandise value of Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall Group probably surged sequentially with more efforts taken to attract merchants and shoppers, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Tencent’s earnings growth could accelerate in the second quarter as domestic games pick up, according to analysts.

  • Hon Hai’s (2317 TT) quarterly revenue for smart consumer electronics probably fell 18%, estimates show, as challenges lie ahead in boosting iPhone-related revenue for the rest of the year, BI said. AI server opportunities and the outlook for PCs and smartphones will be in focus during the earnings call, Citi said.
  • Sony’s (6758 JP) fourth-quarter operating profit is poised to surge 74% on better performance by the gaming division, which should allow annual operating profit to surpass the company’s target of 1.18 trillion yen ($7.6 billion.) Weakness in global electronics sales prompted Sony to cut its outlook for Playstation 5 sales in February, although game software sales continue to grow.
  • Profit at Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) should be lifted by subscriber additions for its mobile and home services businesses. Devaluation of the Nigerian naira should weigh on profit from its Africa operations. However, a free-floating naira will probably be a long-term benefit, reducing uncertainty and easing cross-border transactions, BI said.
  • Rakuten (4755 JP) should narrow its first-quarter operating loss after adding mobile subscribers. The firm probably saw continued operating losses, dragged by its mobile unit amid concerns on whether it can increase both mobile subscribers and average revenue per user, BI said.
  • Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) will probably post a surge in revenue and profit as visa-free arrangements propelled international travel volumes, BI said.

Wednesday: Singapore Air’s (SIA SP) fourth-quarter earnings may face continued pressure on passenger yields, heightened competition, higher costs and cargo weakness, Nomura analysts said in a note. Resilient travel demand could be a bright spot, they added. 

  • Annual profit of Japanese banks Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306 JP), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) probably jumped, consensus shows. The potential uncertainty tied to SMBC Nikko for alleged market manipulation led to higher expenses and regulatory scrutiny for SMFG. The bank’s core earnings could improve gradually thanks to tailwinds from higher interest rates, BI said.

Thursday: Baidu (BIDU US) may post slower first-quarter advertising growth with intensifying competition from various short video platforms, while JD.com (JD US) should report better margins on greater utilization of its logistics assets, according to separate notes from BI. 

 

--With assistance from Ryotaro Nakamaru.

(Updated with earnings expectations for China’s tech firms and on SoftBank)

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